This post is part of a series allowing the LGT community to weigh in with their predictions for the 2015 season. Bragging rights are at stake! There will be two separate contests, one for hitters and one for pitchers. Last year's contest was scored against the field, however, this year's points system will work relative to the stats - the closer to final number in each category, the more points you can earn, despite what other participants predict. You need not submit predictions for every single player in order to win, but doing so will increase your chances to win.
For position players, you'll be asked to predict each player's plate appearances (PA), home runs (HR), stolen bases (SB), batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG).
Comments for each post will remain active until the night of Sunday, April 5th, 2015.
By any and all accounts, Swisher's 2014 was a disappointment. A disappointment piggybacking a decent year that was still below most fans' expectations. We went from complaining about 22 HRs and a 115 wRC+ to wondering if Nick Swisher was toast. Read more about his season here and here.
Courtesy of FanGraphs
Steamer and ZiPS are pretty well in step again, basically viewing as about league average at the place. They both see him missing significant time while seeing his strikeout and walk rates closer 2014 than 2013. Every rate stat is below career average and every counting stat is essentially a disappointment.
What I Think
I don't think the projections tell us anything remotely meaningful. We know Swisher wasn't healthy last year. What we don't know is if he can't be healthy this year. His offseason surgery has left him a bit behind the eightball and he appears slated for the DL on opening day. Where I think the projections are vastly wrong is that a healthy Nick Swisher is much better than average at the plate, but an unhealthy Nick Swisher is much worse than average at the plate. The way I see it, you have to pick side. I hope for our sake, I'm wrong about which side I've picked.
Feel free to make numbers up if you'd like but, if you'd rather be more scientifically accurate, you can use these calculators to help you get there:
To submit your entry, simply copy and paste the text below into a new comment and fill in your predictions!