This post is part of a series allowing the LGT community to weigh in with their predictions for the 2015 season. Bragging rights are at stake! There will be two separate contests, one for hitters and one for pitchers. Last year's contest was scored against the field, however, this year's points system will work relative to the stats - the closer to final number in each category, the more points you can earn, despite what other participants predict. You need not submit predictions for every single player in order to win, but doing so will increase your chances to win.
For position players, you'll be asked to predict each player's plate appearances (PA), home runs (HR), stolen bases (SB), batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG).
Comments for each post will remain active until the night of Sunday, April 5th, 2015.
Michael Bourn came in to Cleveland as a free agent who had fallen in the market due largely to the burden of the qualifying offer. When the Indians scooped him up, we thought we were solidifying centerfield with a multi-tool player. What we've seen since then has been very little of any of the anticipated tools. Read more about Bourn's 2014 season here and here.
Courtesy of FanGraphs
Steamer and ZiPS both seem to agree that the Cleveland version of Michael Bourn up to this point is the new norm. ZiPS is essential looking for a repeat of the last two seasons while Steamer is right in step, thought with a slight decline at the plate. Both see the speed as closer to 2013 levels, but both have him missing a small chunk of playing time for one reason or another.
What I Think
I don't know if there is a player that I am less confident in my own predictions than Bourn. One third of me thinks this is the new normal, that average defense and speed coupled with below average plate performance is all that is left. Another third of me thinks he can be rebo(u)rn and see the speed, defense and just a bit of bat production return. Yet still, another third of me wouldn't be surprised to see him completely vanish to lack of production and injury. It's pick 'em, so we'll go with the middle. I'd like to be bold one way or another, I just can't.
Feel free to make numbers up if you'd like but, if you'd rather be more scientifically accurate, you can use these calculators to help you get there:
To submit your entry, simply copy and paste the text below into a new comment and fill in your predictions!