Let's Go Tribe's American League Preview: Baltimore Orioles

Between now and Opening Day, we'll be taking a look at each of the other American League teams, to see what they've done during the offseason, and what their outlook is for 2014.

Previous entries: Yankees - Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

2013 Record: 85-77 (3rd in A.L. East), 3-4 vs. Cleveland

745 runs scored (4th of 15 in AL), 709 runs allowed (9th of 15 in AL)

The Orioles surprised the baseball world in 2012 by winning 93 games and making their first playoff appearance since 1997. Despite that success, few people considered them a real contender going into 2013, but they played well during the first half of the season, and 100 games into their schedule, they were 57-43, just 2.5 games behind Boston for the best record in the American League. There were still in the thick of the Wild Card race with a week and a half left in the season, but they were swept in a 4-game series in Tampa Bay, ending their chances of another postseason trip.

Baltimore's five most frequent starting pitchers were a fairly average group. They don't have anyone who'd qualify as an ace (or even an especially strong #2), but their top five all performed reasonable well. Someone beyond those five guys started 40 games for the Orioles though, and the guys they were turning to for those games were not an impressive bunch. Worse news than that, top prospect Dylan Bundy had to undergo Tommy John surgery near the end of June. He's hoping to be back before the All-Star break, but it's too early to say if that will happen or not. He's got much higher upside than anyone in the rotation, but even if he's cleared to play in July, it's not likely that he'll be in a position to really help the team until 2015.

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Baltimore Orioles

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Offensively, Baltimore was led by a career year from Chris Davis, who set a franchise record and led the American League with 53 home runs. His OPS of 1.004 was second in the AL to only Miguel Cabrera, and his 165 OPS+ was behind only Cabrera and Mike Trout. Beyond Davis, the rest of the lineup was mostly something close to average, but they managed to score a lot of runs. Manny Machado, the team's young All-Star third baseman suffered a knee injury in September, and it's not yet clear whether he'll be ready for Opening Day.

Key offseason additions:

Ubaldo Jimenez (SP), Nelson Cruz (OF/DH), Suk-min Yoon (P), Ryan Webb (RP), Jemile Weeks (2B), David Lough (OF)

Key offseason departures:

Scott Feldman (SP), Jason Hammel (SP), Nate McLouth (OF), Brain Roberts (2B)

2014 Payroll: ~$105 million

Projected 2014 Starting Lineup (with ZiPS fWAR projection):

Indian who has killed the Orioles:

Jason Kipnis - .327/.429/.564, 1.003 OPS, 3 HR in 66 PA

Oriole who has killed the Indians:

Matt Wieters - .236/.328.473, .801 OPS, 7 HR in 125 PA (that's not killing anyone, but it's the top OPS on the team among players with 50+ PA vs. the Tribe)

Projected 2014 Starting Rotation/Bullpen (with ZiPS fWAR projection):

2014 Outlook:

The Orioles look pretty solid to me, but I don't know that solid is enough in the AL East. Nelson Cruz is better suited to DH than play the field, so he's a good fit for them, but I don't think he's quite as good a hitter as some fans still seem to think he is. They are hurt by a lack of guys who can take a walk, which keep will limit the team's on-base percentage, but they've got pretty solid pop in their lineup, and the PECOTA projection (below) for how many runs they'll score seems low, even if Davis falls back to earth a bit.

Their starting rotation has five pretty decent pitchers, and they've got some pitching depth as well, and I think Baltimore has a decent shot at its third consecutive winning season, but I don't see them having enough to grab a playoff spot, and I also wouldn't be surprised to see them fall into last place, given their divisional competition.

PECOTA Projection: 78-84 (5th in East), 696 runs scored, 729 runs allowed