The Guardians Have a Shortstop Problem

After years of drafting and trading for a bunch of young middle infielders, the Guardians are struggling to find the right fit to pair with Andres Gimenez in the post-Amed Rosario era.

The Guardians are 25th in MLB with a 69 wRC+ from the shortstop position, they are 25th overall with 0 fWAR there, and 18th in defensive value at short.

First, let’s look at the current candidates: Brayan Rocchio has a 75 wRC+, 17.6/11.6 K/BB%, .060 ISO, .294 xWOBA with a .269 wOBA, 1 OAA and 5 DRS. A key for Rocchio will be finding a way to pull more balls in the air (ala Jose Ramirez and David Fry) as he did in Double-A. Rocchio has increased his fly-ball rate by 10% from 2023 to 31% but he’s pulling fewer balls by around 9% at 36.9%. He simply doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to not occasionally yank a ball down the line as he did effectively in Akron. In following him in Venezuela, I’d hoped he’d begun to find a way to get to that pulled-fly ball ability as he made a fair amount of pulled-fly ball outs and hit some home runs. However, that hasn’t translated yet. The good news is that after some early bumps, Rocchio looks to be a good shortstop, defensively. His lack of arm strength alarmed me, but he has been accurate and quick on his release. He’s also smooth around the bag and has been 1.3 runs above average in his range. You can also see that his walk-strikeout numbers look great. It’s really just that he has not been able to impact the ball in any significant manner.

Rocchio is still only 23 years and four months old as I write this article. There is certainly time and biologogical potential for him to add a little more muscle to his frame (a frame that has seemingly lengthened over the past couple years). Personally, I wouldn’t mind if the Guardians see their shortstop of the future, still, in Rocchio, but I’ll be surprised if he’s able to add much power during this season. They probably need to give him the Tyler Freeman offseason plan to add a good amount of muscle mass and send him to watch a bunch of videos of Jose Ramirez pulling the heck out of fly balls and try this experiment again in Spring Training. But, players aren’t robots so you can’t just send Rocchio to Columbus and say “See ya in Arizona in February, here’s a case of protein shakes” without risking hurting his confidence and development mentally and emotionally. However, it would be nice to give him regular AB’s while also finding a way to get some more help offensively at short during the season.

Gabriel Arias, a common target of fan ire this season, has a 59 wRC+, 31.3/2.6 K/BB%, .103 ISO, .279 xWOBA and .249 wOBA, 2 OAA and -1 DRS at shortstop. As a major leaguer, he has 514 plate appearances and a 73 wRC+ with a 31.9/7.3 K/BB%. The hope for Arias being a good major leaguer relies on three facts: 1. He is still only 24 years and 3 months old, 2. He is probably not a player who will thrive playing sporadically, so may need consistent playing time somewhere, and he can play anywhere on the diamond except catcher and pitcher, defensively. 3. He had a 119 wRC+ vs. RHP entering the 2024 season. The red flags are numerous however - he chases too much, he whiffs too much, he misses in the zone at an alarming rate, he hits groundballs at a rate over 50%, and he can seem a little lackadaisical in the field and on the basepaths.

Personally, I still wanted to see Arias get the first chance to start at short for a solid two months to see if consistent playing time would help him get to a consistent approach at the plate. The Guardians, instead, chose to make him more of a swing-utility guy, and that really doesn’t seem like the best approach for him. If I could have my preference, I’d like to see Cleveland trade Arias as soon as possible. If you can do it before demoting him, great, but it may also be worth it to demote him now, let him hopefully find footing at Columbus, and then a team can give him a run at playing short for the rest of 2024, making burning his option year not as huge of an issue. I like Arias but it is so hard for me to imagine him fixing both his whiff and launch angle issues, let alone dealing with the chase issues that have crept in again in 2024.

So, what other options do the Guardians have?

Jose Tena has a 99 wRC+ in Columbus as the Clippers’ primary shortstop (23 years and two months old). Our Covering the Corner writer Zach penned a great summary of what’s exciting and what’s concerning about Tena, recently. Essentially, he looks like a great defender, he hits the ball hard, but he whiffs a lot and hits too many balls on the ground (sound familiar). Personally, I’d be surprised if the Guardians see Tena as more than someone who can potentially be a good utility infielder whom you can play at third, short or second and feel great about his glove while having the potential for him to hit enough home runs to balance out his chase and whiff rates and make him not a huge offensive negative. He does hit left-handed pitching very well for a lefty-hitter, so, again, someone you can plug into a lineup at any time and feel fine, not good or great, and into the field and be confident he’ll get you some outs other gloves might not. So, if the team moves on from Arias, I think Tena is a natural choice to step into that role without feeling like you have to give him everyday at-bats.

Daniel Schneemann has a 157 wRC+ for Columbus as a 27 year old player moving between third base, the outfield and shortstop for the Clippers (Schneemann has had a bad past week of games after an absolutely torrid start as a hitter). I wrote about the Schneemann question recently, so the too-long-didn’t-read version here is that I don’t think the Guardians see him as a starting shortstop defensively based on their usage of him, so I’d look for him to step into an Arias-type role. I’m definitely fine with him getting that chance, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a player already on the 40-man (in Tena) gets first look there. The main thing in Schneemann’s favor, aside from his incredible performance as a hitter in 2024 so far, would be that he has outfield experience and Tena does not.

Angel Martinez is set to make his return from a hamate issue this week in Columbus. In 29 plate appearances in spring training this season, Martinez had a 220 wRC+. Martinez knows how to pull the ball and can do it in the air, as well, and has solid splits in the minors as a switch-hitter. I’ll be very interested to follow how Martinez does following the hamate issues as those can take a while for a hitter to rebound from, and also to see where the Guardians play him. If he gets a healthy dose of shortstop reps, I could see them giving him a shot later this season if the bat still looks good. But, that isn’t going to be a conversation until after the All-Star break at the absolute earliest. Notably, Martinez got work this offseason and in spring training in the outfield, so the Guardians may potentially see a move there as his best path to the big leagues. He also does not have the reputation defensively at shortstop that Jose Tena, Brayan Rocchio or Gabriel Arias do.

Move Andres Gimenez to shortstop and call up Juan Brito to play second base. I’ve come to the conclusion that because second base sees more defensive chances than shortstop and because Gimenez’s arm has its limitations, the Guardians much prefer to keep their platinum glover at second base. Perhaps the Guardians drafting Travis Bazzana or J.J. Wetherholt would change those plans, but likely not until mid-2025 at the earliest, and, more likely, 2026. However, Juan Brito is the one player whom I believe the Guardians MAY have talked to Gimenez about switching to short to accommodate. After a slow April, Brito has been coming on strong and showing out at a 40-45% rate for both pulled hits and fly ball hits. The questions remain about him defensively, and part of me wonders if the team sees him as more of a third baseman, given some issues turning double-plays at second base, which would either make him a long-term asset or a trade chip given who is blocking him. But, the bat for Brito is special and his 14.8% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate seem like something he is able to do consistently at all levels. Brito is only 22 years and eight months old, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he spends the entire season at Columbus, but he is on the 40-man.

A potential trade for a shortstop from another team. I think the Guardians could be in the market for a shortstop under minimal control if one becomes available. I don’t think they’d give up the value needed for a Bo Bichette and I don’t see Milwaukee trading Willy Adames (really a perfect Guardians-type) unless they absolutely fall apart competitively over the next six weeks. That leaves the Guardians with essentially one option - Ha-Seong Kim from the Padres (28 years and 7 months old). Kim is being paid $7M for 2024 and has a mutual option for 2025 for $7M ($2M buyout for any team not wanting to exercise it). He has a 105 wRC+, a .321 xwOBA, 17.3/13.9 K/BB% in 2024, and has been worth 1 DRS and 2 OAA at short. He also has a career 122 wRC+ vs. LHP which helps the left-handed hitting heavy Cleveland roster. If the Guardians see an upgrade at shortstop as crucial for a potential 2024 playoff run, Kim could be a great option that would not be cost-prohibitive to acquire and would not block future options such as Brayan Rocchio. Given the dearth of potential options in the trade market, however, the return for Kim might be higher than what it should be in a vacuum. If I were the Guardians front office, I’d certainly be talking to AJ. Preller to see if he wants to take a chance at recouping some of the value he lost in the Mike Clevinger trade in a Kim trade.

If it were up to me, I’d give Schneemann a run in the Arias role immediately, I’d let Rocchio know he’s going to be given the chance to be shortstop of the future from day one of Spring Training 2024 and tell him “Learn how to speak weight room, buddy”, and simultaneously try to acquire Ha-Seong Kim for the stretch run. If you land Kim, you pat Rocchio on the back and let him work on stuff in Columbus for the rest of the season (unless there’s an injury). If a Kim trade doesn’t pan out, I’d look to see if Angel Martinez flashes some of that Spring Training potential and monitor if a hot streak from him, Brito or Tena could help the team late in 2024, while continuing to play Rocchio as your everyday starter in the meantime. Brito, to me, is the wildcard and if he can build on the 120 wRC+ he has put up this May in June, I think you’d begin to hear some interesting conversations about Gimenez moving to short and giving Brito a run at second base.