Based on ZiPS projections, Zach Plesac is expected to finish 2023 with the following stats:
24 GS, 132.3 IP, 18.4% K%, 6.3% BB%, 4.35 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.0 fWAR
Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Covering the Corner Discord.
Matt Lyons’s prediction: UNDER
This is a hard one, only because I think the projection here is spot on — it’s safe to say the world has a pretty good idea of what Zach Plesac is at this point. So, unless there’s a leap somewhere, a 1-win pitcher might be his future.
Everything from the results, to the innings pitched, to the starts — it’s all right along what I would say. ZiPS is slightly more optimistic about Plesac than Steamer (4.62 ERA, 0.6 fWAR), but I think it has the right angle here. For all his faults, he is still likely a serviceable No. 4 or No. 5 starter, and I think that’s what he’ll be in 2023.
However, there is a world in which he doesn’t reach those innings as a Cleveland Guardian. Maybe by the end of the year he’d round out to the projected numbers, but he might not have a long leash to figure things out with a handful of highly touted prospects breathing down his neck. He can’t start the season as a dumpster fire and eventually bring his ERA down to the expected 4.35.
So I’ll roll the dice on that and take the under.
Will Zach Plesac finish with an fWAR over or under 1.0?