Over/Under 2023 Preview: Zach Plesac

Based on ZiPS projections, Zach Plesac is expected to finish 2023 with the following stats:

24 GS, 132.3 IP, 18.4% K%, 6.3% BB%, 4.35 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.0 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Covering the Corner Discord.

Matt Lyons’s prediction: UNDER

This is a hard one, only because I think the projection here is spot on — it’s safe to say the world has a pretty good idea of what Zach Plesac is at this point. So, unless there’s a leap somewhere, a 1-win pitcher might be his future.

Everything from the results, to the innings pitched, to the starts — it’s all right along what I would say. ZiPS is slightly more optimistic about Plesac than Steamer (4.62 ERA, 0.6 fWAR), but I think it has the right angle here. For all his faults, he is still likely a serviceable No. 4 or No. 5 starter, and I think that’s what he’ll be in 2023.

However, there is a world in which he doesn’t reach those innings as a Cleveland Guardian. Maybe by the end of the year he’d round out to the projected numbers, but he might not have a long leash to figure things out with a handful of highly touted prospects breathing down his neck. He can’t start the season as a dumpster fire and eventually bring his ERA down to the expected 4.35.

So I’ll roll the dice on that and take the under.