Over/Under 2023 Preview: Tyler Freeman

Based on ZiPS projections, Tyler Freeman is expected to finish 2023 with the following stats:

98 G, 437 PA, 4 HR, 6 SB, 5.0% BB%, 11.7% K%, .263/.328/.349, 97 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Covering the Corner Discord.

Matt Lyons’s prediction: OVER

I’m a firm believer in Tyler Freeman’s ability to make contact and surpass some expectations this season (probably more than most people are), so this is an over prediction for me — but not by much.

My rough prediction would be more plate appearances — cementing himself somewhere for more than 98 games — and maybe 110-115 wRC+ with an on-base percentage closer to what he was putting up in the minors and even a bit more slugging as he’s a growin’ boy, after all. An impressive enough first full season that doesn’t necessarily get him national recognition, but solidifies another position for the Guardians (post-trade Amed Rosario, perhaps?).

There isn’t much major-league work to go off of yet, seeing as Freeman technically played 24 games last season but spent a lot of time filling in at random positions as needed over the last month. But even with the sporadic playing time, he managed to squeeze a seven-game hitting streak in there from Aug. 26 to Sept. 12. In that streak he played third base, second base, and shortstop. He was also a late-game pinch-hitter against the Mariners once.

All trepidation towards Freeman is understandable at this point — we barely saw anything from him last year, and he finished with a meager.247/.314/.286 slash. Even before he made the jump to the majors, he wasn’t exactly crushing the ball in Triple-A, with a .279/.371/.364 slash (104 wRC+) in Columbus. But I find some encouragement in his 12.8% strikeout rate and 85.5% contact rate — 33rd among 498 batters with at least 80 PA last year. His CSW%, which is a combination of his swinging strikes and called strikes, was 22.9%, or 21st lowest in the league.

Freeman will need to hit the ball harder to really stick, but the early returns show a 23-year-old not immediately overwhelmed by the major-league level. With the recent news that he is going to be working out in the outfield (alongside his main competitor for playing time, Gabriel Arias), he has a decent shot at getting plate appearances somewhere, and he’s going to make enough contact to fit anywhere.

Tomorrow’s player: Josh Bell