FanPost

Let's have some fun (Soto trade idea that is insane and MORE)


Okay so if you follow baseball and haven't been under a rock for the last week, you are aware that the Nationals are now exploring trading Juan Soto as he rejected a mammoth extension. This is my deadline approach if I: 1) am insane, 2) just got off the phone with Blizter who told me he is gonna pay Soto directly out of his own pocket, and 3) am legit insane this is never gonna happen

I think Soto has about 135M in trade value. Here me out. He is a 5.7 WAR/600 player over his career. His projection for '23/'24 is 15.5 WAR, but I suspect that goes down a little bit given that he is likely a 6 WAR player this year, instead of his projected 8. It won't go down a lot. Let's just say 15 WAR. Rest of year is like 3 WAR. So that's 18 WAR. Everything I've read says 2ish WAR players are worth about 7.5M per WAR, and 3-6 WAR players are worth about 8.8M per WAR. Let's put him at 9.5M per WAR. 170M in value. He is owed likely 65M over the rest of his control. You're sitting at 105M. Add in the "playoff tax", the "superstar tax" and the "everyone wants him tax" and I think 135M is a reasonable return. A good comp imo is Sale, who was traded on a 3/35M deal with a projection of about 16 WAR. That's a bit less WAR, but 30M less money and I think he got a return of about 120M (70M for Moncada, 50M for Kopech. Yes there were 2 other guys but they don't really move the needle that much.)

So, we need to get to 135M in trade value. Espino literally has to be here. I value him at 60M. I'd think Washington asks for Valera, I'd personally offer them Kwan. He's a former ~top 75 prospect that has held his own in his rookie year and is projected for about 2.5 WAR this year. I think he is a 2.5-3 WAR player in general, and would have him around 35M in value. We are about 40M away, and I think we can turn to the MI glut to get most of that. One of Freeman, Arias, Tena is where I am looking, and I suspect Freeman is the best bet. He is likely a top 90 prospect or so, whereas Arias and Tena imo have dropped in their value I'd suspect. Freeman has 25M in value imo. We need 15M. I think that Cantillo + Curry gets that done. Okay....so, Soto for Espino, Kwan, Freeman, Cantillo, Curry. Blockbuster.

Where does this leave us? Let's look at the batting order and lineup

1 - Gimenez (2B)

2 - Rosario (SS)

3 - Ramirez (3B)

4 - Soto (RF)

5 - Reyes (DH)

6 - Naylor (1B)

7 - Jones (LF)

8 - Hedges (C)

9 - Straw (CF)

With a bench of Maile, Clement, Miller, Call. Still a hole at C, and the INF bench options aren't great. We do, however, still have the following in the organization: Bo, Lavastida, Rocchio, Arias, Tena, Martinez, Valera, Brennan, Benson, Noel to fill spots. My main want is a RHH batter who can play 1B and a corner OF who smokes LHP.

Pitching we have Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Plesac, Civale, Pilkington with Williams, Allen, Battenfield, Hankins, Burns, Gaddis, Bibee, Morris, Vargas as upper minors depth. I'd still like a solid No. 2, and an addition to the BP.

I'm now calling OAK about Trivino and Montas. I think a package of around 35M gets it done, and I'm offering ...... I'm having some trouble here. I don't think Bo, Valera, Williams or Rocchio should be on the table. Bo makes no sense since the top two guys in OAK system are catchers. Valera and Rocchio alone are both worth 35M individually imo, and I don't think OAK would be interested in just a 1 for 1 swap. Williams is now the top pitching prospect we have and I think it would be foolish to trade him too. I wonder if OAK would be interested in a quantity trade of Palacios (5M), Allen (10M), Hankins (8M), Noel (8M), Martinez (8M). It's a bit more value but spread out over more players. Really helps there barren farm system. Similar to the Clevinger trade but in reverse.

Let's put this all together:

1. We've added 3 guys to the roster, and traded 4, so we have an open spot, likely going to a pitcher.

2022 batting order and lineup:

1 - Gimenez (2B)

2 - Rosario (SS)

3 - Ramirez (3B)

4 - Soto (RF)

5 - Reyes (DH)

6 - Naylor (1B)

7 - Jones (LF)

8 - Hedges (C)

9 - Straw (CF)

Bench: Maile, Miller, Clement, Call (or maybe Gonzalez)

Notes: Need C and better INF bench options. I think C can be left alone, and resign Hedges to be Naylor's backup next year. Slot Naylor into the 8 spot for next year, put Hedges on the bench. Replace Clement with Arias as the 3B/SS/2B bench option. Call, Brennan, Benson can all fight for the last OF spot, that's fine. I think we need a better 1B/2B/LF/RF option to cover for Naylor as he can't hit LHP. Miller could be that as he has hit better recently but I would prefer someone better. It isn't a massive need. We are going to need to replace Rosario at some point, but still have Rocchio and Tena in the system up the middle, and Valera is still around too for when Soto leaves or he can replace someone else. Still lots of position player depth.

Rotation is Bieber, Montas, McKenzie, Quantrill, Plesac, Civale, Pilkington for this year and next year with Montas gone for 2024 but Morris, Vargas, Williams, Bibee, Burns, Battenfield and Gaddis are all still around to fight for an open spot or two.

hmmm.....my brain tickles. I honestly think that this kicks the door open on the contention window and I think the depth is there to still contend after 2024 as Rosario, Reyes, Soto, Bieber are gone but Naylor, Rocchio, Valera and Williams are all still here, as well as significant depth

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