FanPost

What to do with Bobby Abreu?

I have written several times now that Bobby Abreu inched himself above my Hall of Fame line, despite his case barely registering with the BBWAA (although just enough to keep himself in the conversation). Abreu squeaked by on this first appearance in 2020 with 5.5% of the vote, nudged up to 8.7% in ‘21 and stayed flat in ‘22. With an incredibly weak class of incoming candidates, and several players either earning induction (David Ortiz) or falling off the ballot (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Fred McGriff & Sammy Sosa) there are now plenty of slots available for Abreu to earn. Needless to say the 2023 cycle may be the make or break year for Bobby. Not necessarily whether or not he remains on the ballot, but whether or not he can get anything going via the BBWAA ballot.

There I go again: talking more about where Abreu is headed instead of talking about Abreu’s case itself. I am not quite sure what there is to say about Abreu: he was a good hitter, a good base runner and, as a young man, a good fielder. His 1999 season with Philadelphia is probably the stereotypical season for Abreu. In 1999 Bobby Abreu batted a robust .335 with almost as many walks as strikeouts (109 v 113); the 109 walks ranking 5th in the league. His raw and adjusted OPS ranked 5th & 7th in the league respectively, suggesting Abreu was among the game’s best hitters. He also played excellent defense (according to Defensive Runs Saved) and stole 27 bases. His bWAR was a strong 6.1, 7th among position players. He also failed to make the All-Star game and finished a distant 23rd in the MVP race.

Abreu posted six other seasons about as good and eight other league average to slightly above league average seasons. Is that a Hall of Famer? JAWS would suggest he was at least close, he ranks 21st among right fielders just ahead of Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield and recent inductee Tony Oliva. Then again other players around Abreu include: Sammy Sosa, Bobby Bonds, Reggie Smith & Dwight Evans.

Which brings me to my thought on Abreu: his case really comes down to how much you trust Abreu’s career WAR to capture his greatness. WAR7 and his career bWAR total indicate Abreu was a superb player and worthy of strong consideration. Then again, does bWAR indicate that Abreu was ever great enough at his peak? I am not so sure anymore.

On the one hand: Bobby Abreu’s 41.6 WAR7 ranks less than a win below the Hall of Fame average, 16th all time; ahead of Tony Gwynn, Vladimir Guerrero, and Dave Winfield. On the other: Bobby Abreu never won an MVP, never really deserved to win an MVP award and his best seasons are marginal MVP seasons. By bWAR Bobby Abreu’s best season was 2004, here are Abreu’s statistics for that season:

713 PA, .301/.428/.544 (OPS+ 145), 173 H, 118 R, 47 2B, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 127 BB, 116 SO, 40 SB (90% success rate), Silver Slugger in Right, only 1 DRS, 9 runs above average in baserunning, 6.6 bWAR

Is that an MVP season? It’s certainly in the conversation. Abreu finished a distant 23rd in 2004. Was that fair? I don’t know, maybe? The Phillies were mediocre that year; Barry Bonds slugged .812 and broke the Major League record for walks (heck he was INTENTIONALLY WALKED 120 times, only seven less than Bobby) so I cannot say Abreu deserved to win. Even if we remove Bonds for…reasons I still do not think Abreu was the best player in the NL. Adrian Beltre hit 48 homers and .334 with his typical superb third baseman defense; Albert Pujols was Albert Pujols and others like Scott Rolen & Jim Edmonds were similarly superb. Randy Johnson also pitched another season for the ages (but fewer people were paying attention since the Diamondbacks were dreadful).

Let’s just take that 6.6 bWAR number and ask the question: how often can we expect 6.6 bWAR to earn you an MVP award? Looking at MVP Awards since 2002 (last two decades of awards) the number of times a player won an MVP Award with a bWAR of 7.1 (½ a bWAR of 6.6) or less was 20% of the time. What were the exceptions? In order of recency (raw data here):

2021: Bryce Harper won while posting 5.9 bWAR. Harper likely won because of his absolute dominance over his competition with the stick. Harper led the league in OPS, OPS+ & slugging with no other hitter eclipsing 7.1 bWAR in the National League.

2012: Miguel Carbera only got 7.1 bWAR but he also became the first player in decades to win the triple crown. Not sure this is comparable

2010: Joey Votto edged out Albert Pujols, who posted 7.5 compared to Votto’s 7.0. I think this is Pujols fatigue; he won the award for two years in a row. The Cardinals missed the playoffs that year behind Votto’s Reds which probably helped his cause.

2008: Dustin Pedroia won in a strange year where the top bWAR player was Nick Markakis who only posted 7.5. Nobody stood out this year which helped his case.

2007: I have no idea why Jimmy Rollins won; I don’t think he was the best player on his own team this year.

2006 (Both): A particularly bad year for MVP voters. Ryan Howard led the league in home runs and RBIs, which back then still held sway. I frankly do not understand what convinced voters Justin Morneau was deserving of an MVP Award. It may be the most inexplicable MVP choice since the 1990s.

2004: I am also at a slight loss as to why Vladdy won the MVP this year. Many of the best performing players (Ichiro, Miguel Tejada) played for bad teams.

Of the years where a season in the realm of Abreu’s best season wins you an MVP: there is usually some kind of extrapolating circumstances. You either: A) are lucky and it is near the league lead due to a diluted season, or B) performed some other feat which WAR fails to consider (like Miggy winning the triple crown). I think it’s fair to say that Abreu’s 2004 season does not qualify. Abreu only led the league in triples that year, and was not particularly close in any other category.

It is one thing to enter the Hall of Fame despite being eclipsed by an all time great, it is quite another if your best is never really close enough to realistically win an award barring pure luck. Here are the top bWAR seasons for each Hall of Fame right fielder in order of WAR7:

Babe Ruth: 14.7
Stan Musial: 11.3
Henry Aaron: 9.4
Roberto Clemente: 9.0
Mel Ott: 8.9
Frank Robinson: 8.7
Al Kaline: 8.4
Harry Heilmann: 9.3
Reggie Jackson: 9.2

Paul Waner: 7.2
Larry Walker: 9.8
Sam Crawford: 6.2
Tony Gwynn: 8.6

Dave Winfield: 8.3
Vladimir Guerrero: 7.4
Enos Slaughter: 6.9
Elmer Flick: 6.7
Willie Keeler: 7.1

Chuck Klein: 7.9

Sam Rice: 4.8

Harry Hooper: 5.2
Kiki Cuyler: 6.8
Tony Oliva: 7.0

King Kelly: 7.3
Sam Thompson: 6.0
Ross Youngs: 6.5
Harold Baines: 4.3

I am sure you are thinking two things. First: I did not know there were that many Hall of Fame right fielders (I was partially surprised as well). Second: 6.6 does not quite fit in does it? Sure the lowest number is quite low (Rice’s 4.8), but Sam Rice was also a notorious choice of the 1960s Veteran’s Committee who were probably enthralled by his batting average (a robust .322); he ranks 40th in JAWS behind Brian Giles. In fact of the player’s who’s best seasons rank below Abreu’s none were inducted by the BBWAA and Rice, Hooper, Cuyler, Kelly, Youngs, Baines & Thompson all are fairly egregious choices. If we eliminate the Veteran’s Committee choices we get:

Babe Ruth: 14.7
Stan Musial: 11.3
Henry Aaron: 9.4
Roberto Clemente: 9.0
Mel Ott: 8.9
Frank Robinson: 8.7
Al Kaline: 8.4
Harry Heilmann: 9.3
Reggie Jackson: 9.2

Paul Waner: 7.2
Larry Walker: 9.8
Tony Gwynn: 8.6

Dave Winfield: 8.3
Vladimir Guerrero: 7.4
Willie Keeler: 7.1

OK, now let’s ask the new question: does Bobby Abreu fit in THIS list? The answer is an obvious no. I think it’s helpful to compare Bobby Abreu to a player with whom he shares a ballot with: Scott Rolen. Scott Rolen was superb and likely underrated in his time (Scott failed to win an MVP, nor was he particularly close) and the BBWAA is rightly reconsidering its view of him. Bobby Abreu thus far has eluded this same respect. Why? Answer: impact.

Scott Rolen’s best season was probably 2004 he too lost out to Barry Bonds in the MVP balloting. But his bWAR of 9.2 fits right in as an MVP award candidate and would exceed over half of the winners in my sample of 40. It is possible that, had Bonds not won, that Rolen himself might have gotten much stronger consideration.

What are we left with? On the one hand Bobby Abreu’s career was exemplary: he was a generalist who did a lot of things well. He was underrated in his time, at his best he was among the best players in baseball. At his worst he was a league average contributor, especially with the stick. His calling card: drawing lots of walks while hitting for good average, makes for ‘boring’ baseball. He never stood out: he did not hit for a lot of power, while he stole many bases he never led the league. His defense was strong, but hardly otherworldly.

Is that Hall of Fame worthy? I…am no longer sure. Joe Posnanski likes to say that Hall of Fame candidates need good elevator pitches; a case you can make in seconds or a sentence or two. What is the Bobby Abreu elevator pitch? He drew a lot of walks and, trust us, that is worth as much as Vladdy’s power and batting average, and Winfield’s 3,000 hits, and Sheffield’s mad swing?

I can imagine this fails to win a lot of arguments.

I am trying to think of the best Hall of Fame comparison for Abreu and the closest I can get is Don Sutton. Why? Because Don Sutton was a really good pitcher for a really long time. At his best he was among the best pitchers in baseball; but he was never the BEST pitcher in baseball (the closest he came in bWAR was 2nd in 1980 to Steve Carlton), and even here I am not convinced it’s a good comparison. Why? Because Sutton got to 300 wins, and that’s a sacred number in baseball lore. Abreu didn’t reach 3,000 hits, didn’t club even 300 home runs, and even in an obscure stat like Times on Base: Abreu ranks 49th at 3,979…just short of 4,000.

I likely will keep Abreu on my ballot this year, largely because while I have not found the exact stat yet: I still trust WAR enough to think that Abreu deserves a CONVERSATION about his case. I want the likes of Jay Jaffe to keep digging. Maybe there’s something I am missing which is compelling enough to improve his elevator pitch.


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