FanPost

Jose Remains a Forgotten Superstar

Jose Ramirez changed the trajectory of the Cleveland Guardians franchise. After Jose signed his extension Fangraphs writer Ben Clemens wrote: "It’s not hyperbole to say that a Ramirez extension changes the trajectory of the franchise." According to Zack Meisel, Chris Antonetti pulled Jose Ramirez aside after we clinched the division and thanked him for committing to the Guardians, and stated that this season was impossible without Jose choosing to remain in Cleveland. The fandom has already written unto death the importance of Jose Ramirez’s extension he signed in April, and I feel we cannot stress enough how unusual it was that Jose chose to remain in Cleveland, forgoing a chance at a monster deal.

Terry Pluto wrote that Jose Ramirez cited three main reasons why he chose Cleveland:

1. He wants to become one of the rare players who spend their entire career with one franchise

2. He wants his number retired

3. He wants to enter the Hall of Fame as a Guardian

In many ways Jose’s extension is a bet on himself. Jose feels comfortable in Cleveland and considers Cleveland home; those are powerful considerations. But Jose is also gambling that he can make the extension worth it: it is difficult to play well enough to get your number retired, even in a small market like Cleveland. Earning induction to the Hall of Fame is difficult under the best of circumstances, and doubly so as a third baseman. But Jose Ramirez proved in 2022 that he has the talent and the grit to make good on his gamble.

Jose’s 2022 Season

Jose’s Base Statistics: .280/.355/.514 (148 OPS+), 44 2B, 29 HR, 90 R, 126 RBI, 20 SB (74% success rate), 2 DRS

Jose finished the year with a robust batting line, solid defense (if a step back from 2021), and superb baserunning. In short it was a stereotypical Jose Ramirez season. Both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs reckon Jose finished with about 6 WAR (6.0 for bWAR & 6.1 for fWAR), slightly exceeding projections for the season. Jose led the league in doubles for the second time in his career, and was second to Aaron Judge in total bases (in a ‘regular’ year he could have led the league). In short it was a quite successful season, even if Aaron Judge’s monster year ensures he will not receive much MVP consideration. Overall this is basically what Jose Ramirez produces on average since he broke out in 2016.

Since 2016 Jose has basically averaged an MVP type season every year. His OPS+ is a robust 137, his strikeout rate remains stellar for a modern player, his power output remains superb (he’s ranked in the top 10 every year besides 2019), and his baserunning is excellent. Jose broke out as an excellent defensive player at second base, but has taken to third base as well. In short, Jose Ramirez is the best third baseman in the American League. But Jose is not just a good player in and of himself: he has molded this team in his own image.

Jose Anchors this Team

The Cleveland Guardians (either by design or Jose’s force of nature is unclear) now resemble their quiet star. Jose Ramirez, for a modern player, rarely strikes out. Well, the Guardians are the best in the business in avoiding strikeouts. Jose runs with joy and abandon (similar to fellow Dominican Vladimir Guererro, Sr.) and so do the Guardians (who are 3rd in stolen bases, but with a better success rate than both Seattle & Texas). Jose Ramirez is a good, stolid, defender…so the Guardians play good defense too.

The Guardians are not the best offensive team in the league, but Jose Ramirez anchors the lineup. Only Andres Gimenez can replicate Jose’s offensive output. The only thing Jose seemingly cannot teach is power; the Guardians do lack homerun threats and rank 28th in ISO. But this team hustles, puts the ball in play and will force you to throw them out. Anything to score a run.

I will also add: I do not think any of our prospects could come close to matching Jose’s production. Cleveland debuted 17 prospects in 2022, and many of them hit. But Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman and Nolan Jones all struggled (all, in one way or another, would have been Jose’s replacement) which makes the 6.0 bWAR Jose put up for Cleveland all the more important: it’s not wins we could scrounge from our farm system.

Jose’s Place in the Game

All in all: Jose is underappreciated. His name is discussed…usually when writers are mentioning underappreciated players in the game. Jose started the season scorching hot, which did bring up some MVP conversations early. But his OPS has dropped every month this year, from a scalding 1.114 in March/April to a modest .749 in September (although his last game was a four for five performance which brought his batting average back to .280). It’s not easy to stick out in Cleveland, and in the AL which boasts Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Mike Trout. Jose did lose the Silver Slugger Award last year to Rafael Devers (which I think was a mistake on the writers’ part), but there are other third basemen in the National League who are more comparable to Jose.

In many ways we live in a Golden Age for third basemen with three superb ones playing concurrently: Manny Machado, Nolan Arrenado and Jose Ramirez; we also had Adrian Beltre a few years ago. Nolan is 31, but Machado & Jose both turned 30. Here are their career stat lines:

Manny Machado .282/.341/.493 (126 OPS+) in 6,273 PAs, 330 2B/3B, 283 HR, 839 R, 85 SB, 2 GG, 2 SS

Nolan Arenado .289/.346/.535 (124 OPS+) in 5,831 PAs, 369 2B/3B, 299 HR, 803 R, 23 SB, 9 GG, 4

SS Jose Ramirez .279/.354/.503 (129 OPS+) in 4,713 PAs, 322 2B/3B, 192 HR, 697 R, 174 SB, 3 SS

JAWS (bWAR):

Machado: 52.0/42.5/47.3

Arenado: 52.2/44.6/48.4

Ramirez: 40.3/37.5/38.9

Overall Jose got a later start despite still debuting young, which places him a few full seasons behind them, but his overall offensive stat line is comparable. Jose is a worse defender than both Machado & Arenado, but he makes up for it with better baserunning. I think at this point, if one looked at this era historically right now: Jose would be viewed as worse; not because at his best he was worse, but because his career is shorter.

All three are on a Hall of Fame path, but that path is harder for Jose. Before this season ZIPS projected Jose for 5.4 fWAR this season, 5.2 next season with steady declines until he becomes an average player at 35. If he did that he would be at about 62 WAR: that’s in the realm of Hall of Fame caliber. His ‘peak’ would be a more robust 42.0, in line with Machado & 1 WAR below the standard. That’s a doable road for Jose, but he needs to keep pace for another two years.

The presence of Arenado & Machado also presents a problem: will Jose Ramirez stand out with two other excellent third basemen in his era (plus Adrian Beltre)? It’s unclear, voters have struggled to honor third basemen historically, and Clevelanders have also largely been overlooked (see Lofton, Kenny). Regardless: Jose did exactly what he needed to meet his goals in 2022, the only other thing he can do this year is win a ring.

Thanks for reading! You can find more on my Substack, I apologize for any formatting issues: Substack & SB Nation don't seem to translate over well. You can find the Substack article here

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