As we sit on our hands waiting for the current labor strife to either cancel the upcoming MLB season altogether or somehow resolve itself and allow baseball to resume as regularly scheduled, a lot of looking back has been done with no present activity to discuss.
Much has been made about the woeful production by the Guardians' outfielders over the last half-decade or so. I've done some digging and compiled a table of numbers (courtesy of the resources available at the always wonderful FanGraphs) looking back at every Cleveland outfield from 1994 (the first year at what was then Jacobs Field) through this past season.
Here is said table. Look at it, study it, marvel at it, and recoil in horror at it:
Team |
G |
PA |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
BB% |
K% |
ISO |
BABIP |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
|
wRC+ |
BsR |
Off |
Def |
WAR |
CLE 1994 |
413 |
1571 |
72 |
284 |
246 |
86 |
10.60% |
14.80% |
0.243 |
0.345 |
0.324 |
0.397 |
0.567 |
0.41 |
|
144 |
6.2 |
97.3 |
-10.9 |
13.5 |
CLE 1995 |
542 |
2020 |
91 |
343 |
310 |
76 |
10.10% |
13.90% |
0.237 |
0.31 |
0.299 |
0.374 |
0.536 |
0.391 |
|
132 |
2 |
86 |
-10.4 |
14 |
CLE 1996 |
631 |
2450 |
110 |
413 |
391 |
99 |
12.00% |
13.50% |
0.234 |
0.324 |
0.312 |
0.395 |
0.547 |
0.401 |
|
133 |
8.3 |
119.2 |
-35.7 |
16.5 |
CLE 1997 |
628 |
2471 |
94 |
353 |
331 |
45 |
11.40% |
14.80% |
0.197 |
0.314 |
0.295 |
0.377 |
0.492 |
0.377 |
|
125 |
-1.6 |
75.9 |
-28.1 |
13.2 |
CLE 1998 |
527 |
2130 |
79 |
303 |
307 |
72 |
12.80% |
16.70% |
0.196 |
0.306 |
0.28 |
0.374 |
0.476 |
0.37 |
|
118 |
6.1 |
56.9 |
35.9 |
16.4 |
CLE 1999 |
747 |
2894 |
120 |
482 |
491 |
48 |
11.70% |
18.20% |
0.212 |
0.322 |
0.29 |
0.379 |
0.502 |
0.38 |
|
121 |
-0.3 |
81.2 |
-8.4 |
16.5 |
CLE 2000 |
756 |
2690 |
115 |
408 |
397 |
42 |
10.70% |
18.30% |
0.211 |
0.304 |
0.277 |
0.359 |
0.489 |
0.365 |
|
110 |
2.3 |
38.8 |
-42.9 |
8.4 |
CLE 2001 |
811 |
2744 |
102 |
403 |
410 |
29 |
7.20% |
18.50% |
0.186 |
0.307 |
0.276 |
0.334 |
0.462 |
0.341 |
|
107 |
-3 |
21.9 |
-33.7 |
8.1 |
CLE 2002 |
681 |
2353 |
71 |
272 |
271 |
27 |
8.70% |
17.10% |
0.157 |
0.249 |
0.229 |
0.299 |
0.386 |
0.3 |
|
81 |
-6.6 |
-62.2 |
-18.4 |
-0.1 |
CLE 2003 |
590 |
2468 |
76 |
303 |
294 |
51 |
8.50% |
15.80% |
0.17 |
0.301 |
0.274 |
0.341 |
0.444 |
0.34 |
|
108 |
-1.7 |
22.7 |
3.9 |
11 |
CLE 2004 |
545 |
2192 |
53 |
297 |
234 |
59 |
9.30% |
14.30% |
0.143 |
0.291 |
0.265 |
0.342 |
0.408 |
0.329 |
|
99 |
-2.6 |
-5.5 |
-0.5 |
6.7 |
CLE 2005 |
535 |
2203 |
68 |
297 |
227 |
42 |
7.70% |
17.30% |
0.181 |
0.309 |
0.275 |
0.336 |
0.456 |
0.342 |
|
111 |
7.3 |
38 |
14.1 |
12.7 |
CLE 2006 |
538 |
2225 |
66 |
339 |
256 |
42 |
8.60% |
20.40% |
0.186 |
0.327 |
0.278 |
0.344 |
0.463 |
0.346 |
|
107 |
19 |
40.4 |
6 |
11.9 |
CLE 2007 |
605 |
2179 |
54 |
296 |
236 |
48 |
10.30% |
19.60% |
0.151 |
0.315 |
0.266 |
0.348 |
0.418 |
0.335 |
|
103 |
8.6 |
17.7 |
3.7 |
9.4 |
CLE 2008 |
641 |
2499 |
81 |
332 |
307 |
59 |
9.50% |
18.80% |
0.189 |
0.299 |
0.264 |
0.344 |
0.453 |
0.347 |
|
111 |
15.9 |
51 |
8.3 |
14.6 |
CLE 2009 |
615 |
2508 |
72 |
328 |
289 |
61 |
9.90% |
19.80% |
0.168 |
0.306 |
0.262 |
0.344 |
0.43 |
0.341 |
|
105 |
5.1 |
20.8 |
-33 |
7.6 |
CLE 2010 |
566 |
2283 |
46 |
262 |
241 |
61 |
9.10% |
18.70% |
0.13 |
0.309 |
0.261 |
0.336 |
0.391 |
0.323 |
|
102 |
6.3 |
11.7 |
-26.3 |
6.8 |
CLE 2011 |
605 |
2271 |
45 |
260 |
225 |
42 |
7.40% |
20.90% |
0.133 |
0.295 |
0.244 |
0.309 |
0.378 |
0.303 |
|
91 |
3.1 |
-20.2 |
-26.5 |
3 |
CLE 2012 |
622 |
2203 |
44 |
245 |
210 |
47 |
8.80% |
17.60% |
0.134 |
0.3 |
0.258 |
0.328 |
0.393 |
0.315 |
|
100 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
-33.3 |
4.6 |
CLE 2013 |
544 |
1985 |
43 |
246 |
227 |
60 |
8.00% |
21.10% |
0.133 |
0.322 |
0.265 |
0.327 |
0.398 |
0.32 |
|
101 |
15.3 |
17.7 |
-12.9 |
7.5 |
CLE 2014 |
693 |
2497 |
43 |
274 |
258 |
57 |
6.80% |
16.30% |
0.122 |
0.306 |
0.268 |
0.32 |
0.389 |
0.314 |
|
99 |
5.8 |
3 |
-35.5 |
5.1 |
CLE 2015 |
834 |
2818 |
64 |
302 |
314 |
41 |
8.20% |
18.40% |
0.142 |
0.301 |
0.26 |
0.322 |
0.402 |
0.314 |
|
96 |
7.3 |
-6.7 |
-25.7 |
6.3 |
CLE 2016 |
766 |
2535 |
56 |
329 |
298 |
90 |
7.10% |
19.30% |
0.153 |
0.331 |
0.28 |
0.336 |
0.433 |
0.33 |
|
102 |
24.9 |
32.3 |
-14.7 |
10.7 |
CLE 2017 |
616 |
2018 |
50 |
258 |
253 |
40 |
8.90% |
20.50% |
0.156 |
0.319 |
0.268 |
0.338 |
0.424 |
0.327 |
|
99 |
12.5 |
10.2 |
-21.2 |
5.8 |
CLE 2018 |
666 |
2067 |
42 |
263 |
215 |
62 |
6.40% |
17.30% |
0.128 |
0.311 |
0.27 |
0.327 |
0.397 |
0.316 |
|
96 |
6.4 |
-4.6 |
-6.6 |
5.9 |
CLE 2019 |
653 |
2330 |
69 |
294 |
245 |
43 |
7.90% |
23.50% |
0.16 |
0.304 |
0.249 |
0.317 |
0.409 |
0.31 |
|
91 |
4.9 |
-21.5 |
-2.7 |
5.6 |
CLE 2020 |
228 |
687 |
11 |
60 |
62 |
9 |
8.30% |
25.60% |
0.107 |
0.25 |
0.194 |
0.27 |
0.3 |
0.255 |
|
57 |
5 |
-31.7 |
-6 |
-0.7 |
CLE 2021 |
554 |
1990 |
48 |
225 |
201 |
49 |
7.70% |
21.40% |
0.135 |
0.295 |
0.246 |
0.313 |
0.381 |
0.303 |
|
91 |
7.1 |
-15.1 |
-21 |
3.1 |
The first thing that really jumps off the page is how loaded the 1994-1996 outfields were. Anchored by the once-in-a-lifetime, Hall-of-Fame-caliber trio of Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, and Manny Ramirez, Cleveland outfielders averaged a cumulative WRC+ well over 130 during those three seasons. They eclipsed over 100 home runs in 1996 and probably would've done it in the other two years as well were it not for the strike. The defense wasn't pretty but when you're averaging a SLG around .550 who gives a shit?
Speaking of outfield defense, take a look at 1998: from 1994 through 2002, the outfield was worth negative runs defensively every year except for 1998. That year they were worth 35.9 runs defensively. Not even the Eric Wedge teams that deployed Grady Sizemore and Franklin Guiterrez in the outfield saved that many runs.
There are a lot of things that one can take away from this: for one, who knows about the validity of these numbers, much can be said about the inaccuracy of defensive metrics without going into retrofitting them for bygone eras. For another, it's curious that they went right back to being fairly abysmal in 1999 with largely the same players on the roster.
My hunch is two-fold: I feel they may have been doing something different with the coaching that year, maybe guys were being positioned differently or told to play deeper. The other thought is an interesting one: many will remember Brian Giles was traded to the Pirates after 1998. While he would go on to become an on-base machine and early stat head favorite after leaving Cleveland , one thing he was never known for was his defense. Weirdly, he had the best defensive year of his career in 1998, he was worth 14.1 runs defensively that season while only having one other season with positive defensive runs.
Again, who knows what to make of it. Kenny Lofton also had a career defensive year that season (though not by nearly as much of margin as Giles), so maybe it was something with the coaching. It's just a neat little tidbit to note.
The early 2000s outfields were a steep drop-off from the previous couple of years, the offense took a step back and defense got even worse from its already poor baseline. In 2002 the bottom really fell out, being worth a cumulative -0.1 fWAR and negative runs offensively, defensively, and on the base paths, truly a spectacular level of ineptitude. As the roster continued to be turned over during the 2003-2004 lean years, the outfield production picked back up, with more evenly distributed value between offense, defense, and base running.
The cumulative defensive runs saved from 2005-2008 were well into the positive, this not-so-coincidentally lines up with Grady Sizemore's glorious (and all-to-brief) peak. The 2008 outfield came close to reaching the same heights as the 1990s versions. This was largely due to Sizemore having one of his best seasons (131 WRC+ and 7.4 fWAR), Shin-Soo Choo bursting onto the scene with a 150 WRC+ and 3.2 fWAR in only 94 games played, Franklin Gutierrez having his first truly elite defensive season with 15.2 defensive runs saved, and Ben Francisco being weirdly productive (106 WRC+ and 1.7 fWAR). Ultimately the rest of the team kind of shit the bed that year so the effort was for naught. One final sad note: Since 2008, Cleveland hasn't had a single outfield with positive defensive runs saved.
The outfields of the 2010s were anywhere from okay-ish to plain bad. Unsurprisingly, the best one was of course the 2016 outfield. This was the last Cleveland outfield to have a WRC+ at or above 100 (oof) with a serviceable 102. The big thing about this bunch was they put up the best base running value of any outfield since 1994 (a whopping 24.9!). This tracks with what we watched during that tremendous season, with the team leading the AL in steals, led of course by franchise cult hero Rajai Davis and his league-leading 43. It also felt like that team was always taking the extra base and Raj or Jose Ramirez were always stealing third.
Unfortunately, the success of the 2016 outfield has led to the approach the front office has taken to assembling an outfield since: sign some guys off the scrap heap and hope the kids develop. We all know how well this has worked (outside of 2016, it hasn't). Lonnie Chisenhall finally learned how to hit but his body gave out. Tyler Naquin regressed and was never able to recapture his rookie season success. Clint Frazier was traded for Andrew Miller and then promptly was wasted on the Yankee bench for years and unable to develop. Bradley Zimmer got hurt and was never quite the same after showing an initial spark of brilliance. Greg Allen never translated his minor league numbers to big league success. Other buy-low free agents and trade candidates like Melky Cabrera, Oscar Mercado, Jake Bauers, Leonys Martin, and Carlos Gonzalez all failed for a variety of reasons.
This ultimately culminated with the truly no-good-awful-terribad outfield of 2020. While the stats were obviously dragged down by the extremely small sample size of the pandemic-shortened season, the final numbers still look awful: a WRC+ of 57 and a cumulative fWAR of -0.7. Things rebounded a bit in 2021, but this was largely due to the emergence of Myles Straw after he was acquired from Houston. I shudder to think how things would've shaken out without him on the roster.
So what does the future of the Guardians outfield hold? Well the aforementioned Straw looks like the center fielder of the present and future. George Valera is going to be fucking awesome. Steven Kwan might've made some adjustments to make himself a productive major leaguer. There are also free agent and trade targets galore to further supplement what's already on the roster. If Straw is an analogue for Lofton (just roll with it), we just need to find his Belle and Manny. Maybe Michael Conforto or Seiya Suzuki? Ketel Marte or Bryan Reynolds? Unfortunately we won't know anything until the work stoppage ends.
I don't know if we'll ever see an outfield as offensively monstrous as the 1994-1996 versions, or as well-balanced as the 1998 version, but hopefully we'll get a version that's close. And if/ when we do, I hope it's not wasted on a mediocre team like the 2008 outfield, but it leads the Guardians to their first title since my dearly-departed grandma was a thirteen-year-old sitting in the bleachers in 1948.
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