FanPost

A Comparison to ZiPS Projection - Position Players (1st month edition)


Back at the beginning of the season, I grabbed everyones ZiPS projections on the CBT with the intention of comparing how guys were doing to their projections at the end of every month. Here, I will post the results (these are sorted by Projected wOBA)

Player: Jose Ramirez

Projected wOBA: .376

Actual wOBA: .379

Expected wOBA: .445

Note: Projected in line with Actual, room for growth by expected.

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Player: Franmil Reyes

Projected wOBA: .342

Actual wOBA: .387

Expected wOBA: .399

Note: Outperforming projected, room for growth

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Player: Eddie Rosario

Projected wOBA: .336

Actual wOBA: .271

Expected wOBA: .304

Note: underperforming substantially across the board, but expected is better than actual. Some concerns in this profile. He is sub 30 points from projected to expected

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Player: Josh Naylor

Projected wOBA: .331

Actual wOBA: .281

Expected wOBA: .301

Note: underperforming substantially across the board, but expected is better than actual. Some concerns in this profile. He is sub 30 points from projected to expected

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Player: Jordan Luplow

Projected wOBA: .325

Actual wOBA: .391

Expected wOBA: .397

Note: Overperforming projected, expected in line with actual.

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Player: Cesar Hernandez

Projected wOBA: .315

Actual wOBA: .248

Expected wOBA: .352

Note: Weirdest profile. Actual much lower than expected, which is better than projected by 40 points. He will improve

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Player: Amed Rosario

Projected wOBA: .314

Actual wOBA: .251

Expected wOBA: .273

Note: underperforming substantially across the board, but expected is better than actual, although that isn't that exciting. Substantial concerns in this profile. He is sub 40 points from projected to expected

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Player: Jake Bauers

Projected wOBA: .312

Actual wOBA: .213

Expected wOBA: .317

Note: Another weird profile. His actual wOBA is awful, but his expected is league average and right in line with projections. Positive regression coming for BAUERS?

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Player: Andres Gimenez

Projected wOBA: .301

Actual wOBA: .278

Expected wOBA: .290

Note: underperforming a bit to projected, but not significantly so, especially when compared to xwOBA. Only 11 points off. Given good defense, it's fine.

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Player: Roberto Perez

Projected wOBA: .279

Actual wOBA: .284

Expected wOBA: .338

Note: actual in line with projected, but room for growth.

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Player: Yu Chang

Projected wOBA: .279

Actual wOBA: .177

Expected wOBA: .220

Note: He needs to get sent down.

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The Short Analysis says: We should be getting better production from Hernandez, Naylor and Eddie need to start hitting better, Bauers is not as awful as we think he is, and Amed Rosario and Yu Chang are not good

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