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Over/Under 2021 Preview: Aaron Civale

Will Aaron Civale be worth more or less than 1.5 fWAR in 2021?

Cleveland Indians v Chicago Cubs Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images

Based on ZiPS projections, Aaron Civale is expected to finish 2021 with the following stats:

4.75 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 140.3 IP, 25 GS, 7.38 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, 1.60 HR/9, 1.5 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Let’s Go Tribe Discord.

Matt Schlichting’s Prediction: OVER

This one is really easy.

Aaron Civale is going to have results that are somewhere between his 2020 and 2019 seasons, but he’s going to pitch four times as many innings.

I think it’s pretty reasonable to expect an xFIP around 4.00; everybody is predicting that his FIP numbers will be 4.20+. Even if he pitchers worse than that, as ZiPS projects at a FIP of 4.72 (?!), he still accrues 1.5 fWAR

In other words, everybody thinks Civale is going to have the worst season of his career, pitch more innings than ever, and be the normal fifth starter with some exceptions.

What a glorious floor to bet against. No, I don’t think that the entire league is going to obliterate Aaron Civale. Yes, I think he is going to approach 200 innings pitched. Just do the math from there. This is over unless he forgets how to throw one of his pitches and misses two months.


Will Aaron Civale finish 2021 with an fWAR over or under 1.5?

This poll is closed

  • 94%
    (92 votes)
  • 5%
    (5 votes)
97 votes total Vote Now