Over/Under 2021 Preview: Amed Rosario

Based on ZiPS projections, Amed Rosario is expected to finish 2021 with the following stats:

609 PA, 14 HR, 16 SB, 4.3 BB%, 19.5 K%, .335 BABIP, .283/.316/.431, 90 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Let’s Go Tribe Discord.

Matt Lyons’s Prediction: UNDER

This is another good time to keep in mind that ZiPS is roster agnostic. It projects that Rosario could play in 156 games, not that it expects him to play that many games, let alone amass 609 plate appearances, with Cleveland.

That said, I don’t think he will, and I’m not even sure he will hit his projected 90 wRC+. He crested that mark in 2019 with the Mets, when he slashed .287/.272/.371 and slugged a career-high 15 home runs. But he also sat at an 85 wRC+ in his rookie season, and 75 wRC+ in 46 games last year. I just don’t see the potential breakout here.

In the pandemic-shortened season, Rosario never found his footing with the Mets. He started out of the gate slow, lost his starting shortstop job to Andrés Gimenez, and finished with a career-low 2.7% walk rate and a 23.1% strikeout rate. He has always been a free-swinging batter, and he made it work for him in the minors, despite walk rates that dipped as low as 5%. So far his ability to make contact with everything and hit it anywhere hasn’t translated to the majors, and the only way he’s going to be able to fix it is with more playing time.

There just doesn’t appear to be room for him to do that in Cleveland, though.

Rosario is already in the process of losing his starting shortstop job to Gimenez again if the gut feeling of Terry Pluto is to be believed. So his best shot at regular playing time — short of being traded — is to shift to the outfield or start all over the diamond in a super-utility role. Both options sound like they are up in the air, but neither will get him to 600-plus plate appearances if he can’t hit.