Over/Under 2021 Preview: Bobby Bradley

Based on ZiPS projections, Bobby Bradley is expected to finish 2021 with the following stats:

535 PA, 26 HR, 1 SB, 8.2 BB%, 34.0 K%, .223/.290/.441, 84 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Let’s Go Tribe Discord.

Matt Schlichting’s Prediction: UNDER

ZiPS is projecting that the Cleveland Indians will give 535 plate appearances to a player at either first base or DH who will then post an 84 wRC+. Every other projection system is guessing between 72 and 78 plate appearances.

Reality will be somewhere in between the two of these as the Indians try to figure out what on earth they are doing with all of these 1B/DH/LF types. I can’t make any assumptions about how often or where he is going to play because of how crowded it is.

I guess my point is this: If one of the many potential heirs to first base in Cleveland earns 535 plate appearances, there is no way they’re going to be as bad as 84 wRC+. I simply don’t think they’re given the opportunity to be that blech for that long, even if they sock 26 home runs.

With this in mind, we now consider the Eddie Rosario acquisition. I don’t foresee a scenario in which Josh Naylor doesn’t play first base almost every single day now that we don’t need him in the outfield. Franmil Reyes gets the bulk of the DH duties. Nolan Jones and Jake Bauers also linger.

I believe that the only way Bobby Bradley can manage to top 0.3 fWAR is if he puts up such a monstrous spring that the Indians are forced to put him in the lineup. While I think Bradley will still become a worthwhile MLB player I don’t think he’s going to get (or manage to make) the opportunity to show it this season.

It’s not quite time to pencil in a 3.0+ WAR season or two for him somewhere else, but this does have a familiar shape.