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Over/Under 2021 Preview: Logan Allen

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Will Logan Allen be worth more or less than 0.3 fWAR in 2021?

Cleveland Indians Summer Workouts Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

Based on ZiPS projections, Logan Allen is expected to finish 2021 with the following stats:

5.50 ERA, 5.43 FIP, 8.15 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, 16 GS (21 G), 88.3 IP

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Let’s Go Tribe Discord.

Matt Lyons’s Prediction: UNDER

My under call on this, once again, comes from a difference in playing time.

ZiPS (and Steamer, for that matter) has Allen starting 16 games in 2021, which I don’t think he will do. Bieber-Plesac-Civale-McKenzie-Quantrill is the dream and — barring a tragedy — I think Cleveland will be able to ride that until the wheels fall off. Presumably, Adam Plutko will pick up a couple of starts as needed, as will Allen and Scott Moss. But 16? If he gets to that point I think Cleveland is in trouble.

Even in the bullpen, where I believe Allen will stick most of the year, the key spots will be taken by James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Wittgren, and Phil Maton. Allen may get some preferential at-bats as the only lefty in the ‘pen, but he doesn’t dominate southpaws like a LOOGY, and the three-batter minimum makes matching him against them less important.

We also just don’t know yet what Logan Allen is. He’s pitched in 38.1 major-league innings (mostly with the Padres), striking out 24 batters and walking 20 with an ERA of 5.40. We have yet to see the kind of stuff that had him striking out double-digit batters per nine in the early years of his minor-league career, but the changeup potential is still there, and he mirrors the spin of his fastball and curveball well.

Both ZiPS and Steamer see him missing more bats in 2021, with an 8.15 and 7.94 K/9, respectively. Unfortunately, they also see him missing the zone as well with a walk rate north of 4.00 BB/9.

Most scouting reports and projections see him s a fourth or fifth starter, which is where he may end up eventually. But for 2021 I feel safe in saying he’ll be an average-to-solid reliever throwing somewhere between 20 and 30 innings.

Poll

Will Logan Allen finish with an fWAR over or under 0.3?

This poll is closed

  • 28%
    Over
    (37 votes)
  • 71%
    Under
    (95 votes)
132 votes total Vote Now