Over/Under 2021 Preview: Andrés Giménez

Based on ZiPS projections, Andrés Giménez is expected to finish 2021 with the following stats:

480 PA, 9 HR, 28 SB, 4.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, .248/.306/.381, 77 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Let’s Go Tribe Discord.

Matt Lyons’s Prediction: UNDER

This is a very slight under for me, only because I think ZiPS is mostly spot-on with what his offensive production will be, but it has him at 137 games, which feels optimistically high.

ZiPS has him a little worse offensively than Steamer (77 wRC+ compared to 87 wRC+), and they equal out to basically the same fWAR.

Giménez was essentially a league-average bat in 49 games for the Mets last year, with a 104 wRC+, a 5.3% walk rate, 21.2% strikeout rate, and .263/.333/.398 slash. That’s really good for a glove-first rookie, but it’s also the equivalent of a third of a regular season. Presumably, opposing pitchers never got their chance to adjust to Giménez and slow him down as happens to most rookies.

His defense and speed were both among the best in baseball last year, but Baseball Savant was mostly unimpressed with everything about his bat profile last year, ranking everything from his average exit velocity to expected wOBA and batting average in the lower third of the league.

None of this is to say I think Giménez will be a below-average offensively player throughout his career — or, more importantly, a sub-1.0 fWAR player — but it’s not outside the realm of possibility for 2021.