Over/Under 2021 Preview: Triston McKenzie

Based on ZiPS projections, Triston McKenzie is expected to finish 2021 with the following stats:

4.93 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 9.73 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, 65.7 IP, 0.6 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Let’s Go Tribe Discord.

Matt Lyons’s Prediction: OVER

At first glance, Triston McKenzie’s projections from ZiPS are sort of shocking. After years of hype and a promising debut season, the venerable projection system has him finishing his first full year adding barely over a half a win to Cleveland.

A lot of McKenzie’s shortcomings are predicated on him pitching in just 16 games with 14 starts. That could very well happen if his slender frame and recent injury history make a full season’s worth of games tough on the 23-year-old. However, even if that is the case, I think he will blow that 4.93 ERA out of the water.

I’m sure ZiPS sees fly balls as a potential issue for McKenzie, and it clearly doesn’t think he’ll strand over 80% of the runners he puts on base again. It doesn’t seem to believe in the 33.1% strikeout rate he posted last year as it puts down to 23.8%. I do believe in the strikeout rate, though, and I believe in his overall ability to fool batters with his lively fastball and deceptive fastball.

Again, health will be a concern, but even if he only pitches in the projected 65.7 innings, this feels like an easy over to start this preview series.

Tomorrow’s player: Andrés Giménez