Over/Under 2021 Preview: Scott Moss

Based on ZiPS projections, Scott Moss is expected to finish 2021 with the following stats:

5.18 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 120 IP, 9.23 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, 0.8 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Let’s Go Tribe Discord.

Matt Lyons’s Prediction: OVER

This is the ultimate coin toss of all coin tosses.

Moss has been lights out since coming over from Cincinnati in the Trevor Bauer trade, but his 36 strikeouts, 13 walks, 15 hits allowed, and lone earned run have across just six starts across Double-A and Triple-A. He has yet to make his major-league debut, but he figures to be in the mix for either a back-end starter or a lefty reliever out of the ‘pen early in 2021.

Will he earn the starting role and rack up 120 innings over 26 starts as ZiPS projects? If he does, would he do it while also carrying a 5.18 ERA and walking over five batters-per-nine? It’s a theme that has shown itself as we’ve previewed the Cleveland roster through the lens of ZiPS projections — if a player is bad but still gets a lot of playing time, we’re in trouble.

In Moss’s case, I don’t think he’ll finish with an ERA over 5.00, and I don’t think he’ll start 26 times. His strikeout stuff in the minors was simply too good, and his stuff will only get better if Cleveland turns to him out of the bullpen, which he will probably do at some point.

As a starter, he hasn’t had much of a split between righties and lefties in his minor-league career, so he may work well as someone who can come in to face an important lefty, but also get the next two out as required by the three-batter minimum even if they bat right-handed.

Eric Longenhagen rated Moss as a multi-inning reliever due to a general lack of command that being a starter requires, and that sounds about right. That’s optimistically what I think he can be, to the tune of a very small over on the 0.8 projection.