FanPost

Evaluating Tribe Trade Proposals at BaseballTradeValues.com

So, in the 1,395th episode of the Effectively Wild Podcast, Ben Lindbergh talks to John Bitzer who is the founder of www.baseballtradevalues.com. Bitzer has done an immense amount of research into making a realistic trade simulator that fans can use to propose possible trades. In the website's "about" section it reads: "We studied hundreds of real-life trades, and used those as a guide to match up our numbers to the ones MLB teams are using. Check out our history section to show how our values match up to theirs. Are we experts? No. Well, maybe. No, we’re not professional baseball front-office analysts, so we have no official license for this, if there is such a thing. But okay, maybe we know what we’re talking about, because we’ve been doing this for some time as a hobby. We’re serious baseball fans who have written quite a bit for fan sites on this topic. We also have some skills at statistical analysis (we’ve worked in Finance), and we thought we’d apply them to trade valuation to build (what we hope is) a predictive model. We’ve fine-tuned and adjusted our numbers along the way, and recently decided to go public with our approach once we got the system to be reasonably accurate."

With this in mind, I decided to look at the trade proposals on the BaseballTradeValues site on 6/30 involving the Indians.

Proposal 1: Reds GET
Francisco Lindor - 87.3
Total Value: 87.30

Indians GET
Jose Peraza - 20.3
Taylor Trammell - 70
Total Value: 90.30
Submitted by User: jwalter

Evaluation: Give jwalter credit, he snuck this one by the simulator. Trammell is a good piece to get back for Lindor, but I'm not sure why the Indians would have interest in Peraza. Not a great start for the simulator here, from my point of view.

Proposal 2 - Indians GET
Alex Kiriloff - 48.7
Adalberto Mejia - 0.7
Fernando Romero - 13.2
Total Value: 62.60

Twins GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Brad Hand - 26
Total Value: 62.70
User: jgawel

Evaluation: I don't mind this trade because I really like Kiriloff. However, I would think the Twins are going to have to significantly overpay to get BOTH Bauer and Hand. Kiriloff for Bauer would be a good deal for the Tribe, in my humble opinion, but I'm not sold on there being a lot of value in Mejia and Romero.

Proposal 3: Padres GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Michel Baez - 12.8
Hudson Potts - 10.8
Ryan Weathers - 16.3
Total Value: 39.90

User: TheKanyePadre

Evaluation: I wonder who TheKanyePadre roots for? I actually like this trade as far as the Indians getting significant value for Bauer. However, the value the Indians are getting doesn't help them much if at all for 2020. This is a trade to make if a rebuild is on the way.

Proposal 4: Indians GET
Adrian Morejon - 20.6
Josh Naylor - 15.8
Jason Vosler - 1.3
Total Value: 37.70

Padres GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70
user: jgawel

Evaluation: This is a pretty fair trade, from what I can see. All three pieces have potential to help in 2019 and/or 2020. But, in the end, I don't think it improves our chances of a World Series in 2020.

Proposal 5: Athletics GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Oliver Perez - 2.5
Total Value: 39.20

Indians GET
Lazaro Armenteros - 15.8
Dustin Fowler - 12.7
Jurickson Profar -9.5
Total Value: 38.00
User: brenarlo

Evaluation: I'd be pretty surprised if the A's felt like this deal made sense for them, but, even so, this isn't quite enough value for Bauer for me to want to pull the trigger.

Proposal 6: Phillies GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Adonis Medina - 21.3
Mickey Moniak - 5
Vince Velasquez - 10.9
Total Value: 37.20

User: jgawel

Evaluation: While Velasquez is a tempting trade piece to see if the Indians could solve his issues, I don't think this is quite enough for me to move Bauer. I'd want to get a hitter ready to help in 2019/2020, myself. But, the value seems to match up on paper.

Proposal 7: Athletics GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
A.J. Puk - 37.3
Total Value: 37.30

User: GeorgeMallory

Evaluation: So, Puk just came back from Tommy John. He looks like he could be a great pitcher, sure, but, again, I'd prefer to get a hitter back for Bauer. With that said, I can see why this deal would make sense if the A's decided to go for broke in 2019-2020 and the Indians thought Puk could help in 2020.

Proposal 8: Rays GET
Brad Hand - 30.9
Francisco Lindor - 105.1
Carlos Santana - -8.4
Total Value: 127.60

Indians GET
Willy Adames - 90.2
Shane Baz - 14.8
Jesus Sanchez - 43.7
Total Value: 148.70

User: zwendkos

Evaluation: This proposal is somewhat similar to one I propose below. Santana's contract is a dead-weight here, but I don't want to let our sweet prince go in a trade like this. It would be rough to go from Lindor's gold glove to Adames' ...not-gold glove, but I can see why this trade would make sense if the Indians are giving up on 2019 and the Rays are going World Series or bust.

Proposal 9: Padres GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Hunter Renfroe - 33.3
Total Value: 33.30

User: sthorn23

Evaluation: Simple, and, I'm sure you can tell from my earlier comments, I'm pretty content with it. I'd want at least another prospect or relief pitcher thrown in. My biggest issue is that I don't really know why the Padres would want to get Bauer. They seem like they are still a year or two away from really contending to me. But, all reports are that they've been in on Bauer the whole time.

Proposal 10: Athletics GET
Brad Hand - 30.9
Total Value: 30.90

Indians GET
Lazaro Armenteros - 15.8
Jharel Cotton - 15.6
Total Value: 31.40

User: athletics247

Evaluation: I don't like Cotton and Armenteros is too far away from contributing.

Proposal 11 - Cardinals GET
Corey Kluber - 43.9
Total Value: 43.90

Indians GET
Ryan Helsley - 2.3
Alex Reyes - 44.5
Jake Woodford - 1.5
Total Value: 48.30

User: jackson02

Evaluation: I feel like this is an Indians fan. I'd make this deal just for Reyes, but I don't know why the Cardinals would do it with Kluber's injury and declining velocity.

Proposal 12 - Royals GET
Bobby Bradley - 6.6
Total Value: 6.60

Indians GET
Jorge Soler - 5.4
Total Value: 5.40

User: GTodtenhausen

Evaluation: Hey, now, someone is thinking outside the box! It would really stink to see Bradley hitting bombs for the Royals against us. But, it would be nice to see him striking out against us, and I like Soler, especially for helping in the here and now. If the Royals are in on this, I think you could talk me into it.

Proposal 13: Cardinals GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Genesis Cabrera - 2.7
Evan Mendoza - 1.7
Tyler O'Neill - 29.8
Edmundo Sosa - 1.8
Total Value: 36.00

User: GMofCardinals

Evaluation: Well, I hope this is Mike Girsch, because I like this deal. O'Neil helps now, and Cabrera and Sosa can help now as well, and have potential to outperform their current projected values. I like this, but mainly because I like O'Neil. Not sure it would make us better in 2020, but if the Tribe decides to trade Bauer this year, they could definitely do worse.

Proposal 14: Athletics GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Austin Beck - 11.7
Dustin Fowler - 12.7
Daniel Mengden - 6
Sheldon Neuse - 6.6
Total Value: 37.00

User: ChaptainAmerica

Evaluation: I notice a running theme of A's fans thinking their team will be a buyer and giving us crap for Trevor Bauer. Ok, Beck is decent value, but his ETA is 2021. I'll pass on this one.

Prospect 15: Padres GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Cal Quantrill - 5.6
Hunter Renfroe - 33.3
Total Value: 38.90

User: vjelso4

Evaluation: A better proposal than the earlier Renfroe-Bauer deal because Quantrill is decent value also. If the Indians decide to trade Bauer, I'm in on this one.

Proposal 16: Yankees GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Clint Frazier - 20.4
Jonathan Loaisiga - 14.7
Total Value: 35.10

User: Deschaine17

Evaluation: I think this is good value on paper, but I am not sold on Frazier. I would also hope there would be a Yankee tax that at least gets us another good prospect. (Edit: Ctttribe reminded me that Loaisiga has shoulder trouble following TJ surgery, so you'd need to substitute another pitcher here to make it work on paper).

Proposal 17: Padres GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Adrian Morejon - 20.6
Josh Naylor - 15.8
Jacob Nix - 3.2
Total Value: 39.60

User: hockeyjohn

Evaluation: It's not bad. I prefer the Renfroe-Quantrill deal, but I do like Morejon and Naylor. Nix is a total gamble.

Proposal 18: Padres GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

Indians GET
Logan Allen - 15.1
Ty France - 3.9
Franmil Reyes - 23
Total Value: 42.00

User: hockeyjohn

Evaluation: Guys, a lot of people think the Padres and the Indians are gonna do a Bauer deal. This is my favorite yet, however, because I love Allen and Reyes. I highly doubt the Padres are gonna move Reyes who looks like a fan favorite and a true slugger.

Proposal 19: Athletics GET
Brad Hand - 30.9
Total Value: 30.90

Indians GET
Lazaro Armenteros - 15.8
Alexander Campos - 1.5
Dustin Fowler - 12.7
Total Value: 30.00

User: OaklandAsbaseball

Evaluation. Doesn't fit our timeline, not really interested in Fowler at that price.

Proposal 20: Athletics GET
Brad Hand - 30.9
Jason Kipnis -13.5
Cash - 5
Total Value: 22.40

Indians GET
Alexander Campos - 1.5
Greg Deichmann - 3.3
Jeremy Eierman - 4
Dustin Fowler - 12.7
Total Value: 21.50

User: OaklandAsbaseball

Evaluation: A's missed the opportunity to do this kind of deal in the off-season.

Proposal 21: Indians GET
Roansy Contreras - 4.4
Clint Frazier - 20.4
Jonathan Loaisiga - 14.7
Total Value: 39.50

Yankees GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

User: jkfarrar

Evaluation: This is more like it, adding in a lower-level prospect who could help down the road. I still don't like a deal for Frazier, but this is better than the previous proposal.

Proposal 22: Twins GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Brad Hand - 30.9
Total Value: 67.60

Indians GET
Jhoan Duran - 8
Nick Gordon - 7.1
Brusdar Graterol - 25.5
Ryan Jeffers - 5.9
Trevor Larnach - 19.5
Total Value: 66.00

User: walleyeslayer

Evaluation: First, awesome username. Second, the value here makes sense if the Indians are going into more of a rebuild season. This kind of deal makes sense if the Indians try to trade Frankie, also. So, in other words, don't expect this one.

Proposal 23: Indians GET
Lazaro Armenteros - 15.8
Chris Bassitt - 10.6
Jorge Mateo - 10.4
Total Value: 36.80

Athletics GET
Trevor Bauer - 36.7
Total Value: 36.70

User: grover

Evaluation: Is this OUR grover? I bet it is! Sorry, grover, this doesn't quite do it for me because I don't really like Bassit and Mateo and Armenteros are too far away from the majors.

Proposal 24: Dodgers GET
Brad Hand - 30.9
Total Value: 30.90

Indians GET
Edwin Rios - 2.8
Will Smith - 26.1
Total Value: 28.90

User: damerikaner

Evaluation: I'm a big fan of Roberto Perez, but I'm into this deal. I like Rios better than this site does and Smith could be an elite catcher. Throw in a guy who can help out of the pen, and I'd be sold.

Proposal 25: Indians GET
Logan Allen - 15.1
Ty France - 3.9
Cal Quantrill - 5.6
Hunter Renfroe - 33.5
Total Value: 58.10

Padres GET
Greg Allen - 14.2
Trevor Bauer - 38.4
Total Value: 52.60

User: hockeyjohn

Evaluation: Is hockeyjohn a Tribe fan? I'm sorry, but I can't see another team really valuing Greg Allen this highly. If they actually do, I'm sold on this.

Proposal 26: Braves GET
Trevor Bauer - 38.4
Brad Hand - 26
Total Value: 64.40

Indians GET
Kolby Allard - 3.4
Christian Pache - 45.3
Kyle Wright - 23.5
Total Value: 72.20

User: hockeyjohn

Evaluation: It makes sense and reflects the fact that the Indians should be getting an overpay for giving up Hand and Bauer early. If the Indians are giving up on 2019, this one makes a ton of sense for 2020.

Proposal 27: Braves GET
Trevor Bauer - 38.4
Brad Hand – 26
Total Value: 64.40

Indians GET
Johan Camargo - 29.1
Touki Toussaint - 15.5
Bryse Wilson - 18.9
Total Value: 63.50

User: benischeck7788

Evaluation: IF the Indians think they can fix Wilson, this could be a good deal. I like Toussaint and Camargo. Not enough for me, though.

Proposal 28: Padres GET
Trevor Bauer - 38.4
Francisco Lindor - 87.3
Total Value: 125.70

Indians GET
Tucupita Marcano - 12.1
Josh Naylor - 15.8
Luis Patino - 26.4
Buddy Reed - 4.1
Luis Urias - 65.3
Total Value: 123.70

User: andreloco

Evaluation: If the Indians are entering rebuilding mode, this is one of the best trade proposals I've seen. I don't think the Indians SHOULD be rebuilding, though, so that's a no from me.

Proposal 29: Indians GET
Clint Frazier - 20.4
Tyler Wade - 4.5
Total Value: 24.90

Yankees GET
Brad Hand - 26
Total Value: 26.00

User: eichlera

Evaluation: Do the Yankees really need more relievers? I'm not a Frazier fan, so that's still a no from me.

Finally, I offered a couple proposals of my own:

Indians & Orioles

Submitted by: qwheeler21
June 30, 2019

Indians get:
Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Mancini 27 Majors OF Medium 3.5 41.7 17 24.7 24.7 28.9 33
Total Value: 28.90

Orioles get:
Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Benson Minors OF 4.3 3.4 4.3 5.2
Jones Minors 3B 23.3 18.6 23.3 28
Morgan Minors RHP 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3
Total Value: 28.70

Evaluation: That seems like a LOT to give up for Mancini. But, I guess if it gives you a right-handed slugger for the middle of the lineup, it would be a good way to go all out for 2020. It shows me how much we'd have to pay for Mancini, and I'm not sure I want to do that.

Indians & Rays
Submitted by: qwheeler21
June 30, 2019
Indians get:

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Alvarado 24 Majors LHRP Low 4.5 19.8 6.5 13.3 13.3 15.3 17.3
Franco Minors SS 111.5 89.2 111.5 133.8
Total Value: 126.80

Rays get
Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Hand 29 Majors LHRP Medium 2.5 47.4 21.1 26.3 26.3 28.6 31
Lindor 25 Majors SS Very low 2.5 137.4 47.5 89.9 89.9 96.8 103.6
Total Value: 125.40

Evaluation: This is for the rebuild model. If the Indians trade Lindor this year, they better get Franco for me to be happy. One future Hall of Famer for a prospect who has the same trajectory would definitely soften the blow as much as possible. I don't think the Indians or Rays would want to make this deal, though, nor should they.

Finally, I had this Proposal Rejected

Royals Whit Merrifield (52.3)

Indians Triston McKenzie (22.7), George Valera (21.3) and Luis Oviedo (9.8) – 53.8

This was rejected because I didn't include a player with a high enough value. However, I think the Royals would be interested in this because they are rebuilding. I think the rejection shows a flaw in the site - it doesn't have a great way to take into account where a team is in their competitive window.

So, let me know what you think of these deals! Check out the website and play around with the simulator, I'm sure many of you will enjoy it just as much as I have so far.

FanPosts are reader-generated, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Covering the Corner or the Covering the Corner staff.