After the first 59 games of the season, would anyone have noticed if Tom Hamilton took a cue from Virgil to open his broadcast?
From Progressive Field in downtown Cleveland, Ohio, it is game No. 60. All hope abandon ye who enter here. Hi again, everybody, Tom Hamilton, Jim Rosenhaus, Stephanie Hagele here in the booth.
In the aftermath of that 59th game, an 0-2 loss to the White Sox, Cleveland’s playoff odds (per FanGraphs) sunk to a nadir of 26.8%, down from 95.9% on April 8. It was hard to argue with the prediction, however, as the loss sunk the team’s record below .500, to 29-30. And the record itself was appropriate, given the offense was 26th by park-adjusted metrics, with a 79 wRC+, and a slash line of .226/.312/.369. If the offense were an individual player, that player would likely have been DFA’d.
The change since that point, however, has been dramatic. Nineteen games is a small sample, but a record of 14-5 with the fifth-best park-adjusted offense (116 wRC+) is no insignificant feat. As pointed out by Jason Lloyd at The Athletic, the Indians are now roughly where they have been each of the last three seasons at this point. So, maybe theorizing about trades and calling for the manager’s head was a bit premature.
Or maybe it wasn’t.
Sure, no one quite expected the Twins to be that good, but everyone expected the Indians to struggle on offense because of glaring holes in the outfield. And that was exactly what happened for more than one third of the season: 36% of the season was spent playing sub-.500 ball. No matter how good the offense has been over the very small sample of the last three weeks — and it has been good, especially considering a still low .292 BABIP — the fact that the front office cut salary before the season (perhaps via ownership dictum) and got the predictable result from such moves is still damnable.
Likewise, Terry Francona has to play the players management gives him, but his decision-making on the players he’s given is still baffling. For instance, Leonys Martin started 11 of the last 15 games prior to being cut; thus, the logic was his offense was bad enough to deserve removing him from the team, but not so bad that someone else should have been starting in his place. That doesn’t make any sense, particularly when Francona himself said it was time to “find out about some of these younger guys.”
I’m glad there are reporters out there keeping fans honest about what is happening right now. Lloyd’s article was good and useful and if people didn’t like it that’s because he exposed an ugly truth about their own fandom. But to claim, as Andre Knott did on the latest A to Z Podcast, that “nothing but dumbasses” live on Twitter is to write off legitimate fan frustration. Those with an audience shouldn’t feign ignorance as to why some in that audience would be unhappy with Francona or mock their legitimate frustration. Because above-average offense over a small sample less than halfway through the season does not justify the wait-and-see attitude many reporters told fans to have.
Despite the frustrating play and disappointing offense, to date I’d have to say the Indians have been lucky. They’ve weathered the disappearance of José Ramirez, a plague of injuries to pitching staff that is literally worse than decimation, and veterans like Martin and Carlos González turning into pumpkins but maintained at worst a one-in-four likelihood of making the playoffs. In life and in baseball, to be lucky is often better than being good, but if you know your team has a black hole of an outfield, if you know your team is a “second-half team,” if you know your depth is thin and injuries could expose you, then it is malpractice not to try and address those issues. The Indians did not, and fan frustration bubbled over as a result. Perhaps more people should recognize how great the offense has been of late, but the remnants of the disgust we all felt from the first third of the season cannot just be brushed aside.
I’m as happy as anyone that Oscar Mercado is as good as we hoped, that the Indians can pop arms like Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale into the rotation seemingly at will with no ill effects, and that Bobby Bradley is finally getting a look at the highest level. But would the team have found itself in a double-digit hole to Minnesota had they signed an outfielder or two or otherwise added offense in the offseason? That’s an unanswerable question. Another unanswerable question is whether the Indians’ strategy of rebuilding while winning will be successful.
Perhaps the Cleveland front office is smarter than other teams that have attempted the same thing, such as the Mariners. But it seems like the team is trying to have its cake and eat it, too, and some folks with access to the team at some level want fans to feel ashamed for complaining the cake we’re being fed is missing a few ingredients.
I’m not going for it. I can be happy the Indians are still in it, I can hope their mid-window rebuild works out, but I can also be bitter about cynical and frugal management. Because, at the end of the day, those of us who want to see the organization build a winner right now, with the great players currently wearing the name of the city of Cleveland across their chest, hold more power than anyone wants to admit. And if our anger is diminished, maybe our support of the club will be as well.