FanPost

September Awards Chase: Cleveland Edition

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

With one month of baseball left several Indians are pushing hard for awards. The two big ones, of course, are Jose Ramirez & Corey Kluber/Trevor Bauer seeking to snag an MVP & Cy Young Award for the Tribe in 2018. The goal of this post will be to review the current state of the race, and determining the odds of the player winning the award.

Some other notes: if a statistic is in bold the player leads the AL, if the statistic is both in bold and italicized he leads MLB in the category.

AL Cy Young

The Indians currently field two candidates for the award. Heading into August, Chris Sale appeared as the clear leader, with only Trevor Bauer really challenging him for the award. Now, with both Bauer & Sale on the DL the race has opened to other pitchers, although no pitcher really looks poised to snag this award from under Chris Sale yet. The current bWAR leaders for AL pitchers stand as:

Chris Sale 6.5
Blake Snell 5.8
Corey Kluber 5.7
Trevor Bauer 5.6
Justin Verlander 4.7
Mike Clevinger* 4.5

*Had you told me Clevinger would outrank Carrasco in bWAR this year at the beginning of the season I'd have laughed at you, but he's been really damn good.

Despite several trips to the disabled list, Sale remains almost a full win ahead of his peers, with Blake Snell actually sitting in second place. Overall, I do not think Verlander or Clevinger have real cases for the Cy Young Award, despite ranking in the top 10 in pitchers bWAR, so we shall focus on the top 4. Now let's consider the full pitching line from each player:

Chris Sale:

Rate Stats:
1.97 ERA, 221 ERA+, 1.95 FIP, 0.849 WHIP, 5.6 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 13.5 SO/9, 6.1 IP/GS, 0.6 HR/9, 6.64 SO/BB

Counting Stats:
23 GS, 146.0 IP, 219 SO, 12-4 W-L, 0 CG, 0 SHO

Chris Sale came back from losing the 2017 Cy Young Award to Corey Kluber by surrendering half the number of home runs, and a hit less an inning. On an inning basis, Sale is clearly the best pitcher in the American League and may only be second to Max Scherzer in MLB. As the fawning National Media loves to remind us Chris Sale is probably the best pitcher in baseball to not win a Cy Young Award which is important for voters. Effectively, you need to persuade the voters another pitcher is more valuable than Sale, as no other pitcher has been better than him on a per inning basis this season.

Blake Snell:

Rate Stats:
2.02 ERA, 201 ERA+, 3.11 FIP, 1.009 WHIP, 5.9 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 10.5 SO/9, 5.8 IP/GS, 0.8 HR/9, 3.28 SO/BB

Counting Stats:
26 GS, 151.2 IP, 177 SO, 17-5 W-L, 0 CG, 0 SHO

Snell is having an interesting year, he is averaging less than 6 innings per start, which is clearly below average, and he does not lead the AL in any category. However, his run prevention statistics are superior, which results in a high bWAR. I do not see Snell knocking off Sale, because of the big innings pitched difference between Snell & Kluber/Verlander. If the electorate goes with a low innings pitcher, it will be Chris Sale.

Corey Kluber:

Rate Stats:
2.75 ERA, 160 ERA+, 3.13 FIP, 0.947 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 1.3 BB/9, 8.8 SO/9, 6.2 IP/GS, 1.0 HR/9, 6.79 SO/BB

Counting Stats:
29 GS, 193.1 IP, 190 SO, 18-7 W-L, 2 CG, 1 SHO

Kluber's having an interesting year. You only need to look at him to realize he's not pitching as well as he did in 2017, and the rate stats reflect this clearly. His ERA+, SO/9, H/9, and WHIP all increased this season, he's striking out nearly 3 batters per nine innings less than 2017, and not completing as many games. However, despite his reduced performance, Kluber remains an incredibly valuable starter. He leads the league in complete games, shutouts, and Walks per nine, while leading the AL in wins and innings pitched. Last season his case was quality over quantity; Kluber was just a touch better an inning than Sale and only pitched 13 innings fewer. This season Kluber's case is quantity over quality. Kluber has pitched nearly 50 innings more than Sale, but his rate performance pales in comparison. However, intriguingly enough, despite pitching less dominantly overall, Kluber's pitched deeper into games, and still has more complete games and shutouts than Sale. Assuming Sale does not come back and somehow pitch a ton of innings, it will be an intriguing argument either way.

Trevor Bauer:

Rate Stats:
2.22 ERA, 198 ERA+, 2.37 FIP, 1.090 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 11.6 SO/9, 6.2 IP/GS 0.4 HR/9, 3.82 SO/BB

Counting Stats:
25 GS, 166.0 IP, 214 SO, 12-6 W-L, 0 CG, 0 SHO

Bauer's had an interesting year, and unfortunately it appears he will not pitch again in the regular season (he may still pitch in the post season). By production, he's been a little better per inning than Kluber (at least at preventing runs), and about as productive as Snell & Sale. However, he's doing it in an unusual way. Bauer leads the league in HR rate, which is extremely unlike the rest of his career. As it stands, while Bauer's having a great year by any standard: there really is not much of an argument for Bauer over Chris Sale any more. Before both pitchers hit the DL, Bauer had a sizable lead over Sale in innings pitched, and while his peripherals were inferior: his run prevention remained close enough to Sale that he appeared nearly as valuable. With Bauer now on the DL, he really does not stand out. In fact, Bauer's case resembles Blake Snell's case more than Chris Sale's.

Analysis

Barring a surprise comeback by Bauer, and an unprecedented run by Snell, I see this race as between Chris Sale & Corey Kluber. Kluber has a sizable inning advantage over Chris Sale, and depending on Sale's health could wind up with between 50 and 70 innings over Sale. That's a massive advantage for Kluber; in fact I personally think if Chris Sale is 50-60 innings behind Kluber there's really no argument Sale's been more valuable than Kluber (assuming he maintains or improves upon his stat line), as health is a critically important skill. If the gap is less than that, it's a toss up on who is more valuable. Unfortunately I think the media has already decided Chris Sale is the winner, and is determined to give him the award anyway, as a reward for waiting so long. Overall, I do not think there's been a season where Sale clearly deserved to win, and missed out, but he's also clearly the best pitcher in the game today without a Cy Young.

Should Win: Kluber (assuming he keeps his inning advantage, and the rates remain the same)

Will Win: Chris Sale, barring an upset

AL MVP

Jose Ramirez is a strong candidate for AL MVP, and is competing against Mookie Betts (and Mike Trout, to a lesser extent). Unfortunately, Jose's production has plummeted in recent weeks, and he no longer seems likely to overcome Mookie Betts. By bWAR, Jose rests at 7.8 where Mookie nudged up to 9.0. The three players look as follows:

Mookie Betts, RF:

In 121 Games, 548 PA, 628 AB:

.335/.425/.626, OPS+ 179, 157 Hits, 111 Runs, 39 2B, 29 HR, 27 SB (6 CS), 71 RBI, 17 Defensive Runs above Replacement

Mookie's been a terrific fielder, an amazing hitter, and good baserunner for the best team in the league. He lost out the MVP two years ago, and ever since the media's been raving about how he's a future MVP. This year seems to be his year. While his offense is not as prolific as his teammates, J.D. Martinez, his overall value should carry the day.

Mike Trout, CF:

In 120 Games, 529 PA, 407 AB:

.305/.456/.604, OPS+ 189, 124 Hits, 88 Runs, 21 2B, 31 HR, 22 SB (2 CS), 63 RBI, 5 Defensive Runs above Replacement

Trout is a similar baserunner to Mookie, and not as good a fielder. However, he's been the best hitter in the league. Frankly, I am not convinced anyone should beat Trout, consider his ridiculous on base percentage; I'm just not sure anyone can do much of ANYTHING to be more valuable than that, in the AL.

Jose Ramirez, 3B:

In 136 Games, 600 PA, 498 AB:

.287/.402/.590, OPS+ 162, 143 Hits, 95 Runs, 34 2B, 37 HR, 29 SB (5 CS), 96 RBI, 5 Defensive Runs above Replacement

When Jose was also in Mookie's league offensively he had a good argument for the MVP. Unfortunately, his offense has gone cold in the month of August, and his power surge has dropped. As a result his WAR, once above 8.0 and leading the league, is now below 8, and only 3rd. He has played the most compared to Trout & Mookie, which matters, but not as much as it does for pitchers. Jose's only logged 50 more PA than Mookie, and 70 more than Trout. The Tribe's MVP drought (the longest in the Majors, besides the three teams which have never won the award: Arizona, New York Mets, and Tampa Bay) will continue for at least one more season.

Analysis

I do not believe Jose would have won the award even if he had continued to rake at his previous level. The media's preference for Mookie was strong. Mookie plays in the bigger market, has the higher batting average, and frankly was simply talked about more. At this point, Jose is not the MVP, in my opinion, I would give the award to Mike Trout due to his superior offensive statistics, and his play at Center Field.

Should Win the Award: Mike Trout

Will Win the Award: Mookie Betts

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