:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/53402339/GettyImages-546062026.0.jpg)
MLB.com has finally updated their Top 30 prospects list for the Cleveland Indians, and to the surprise of some, Bradley Zimmer remains on top, with breakout catching prospect Francisco Mejia hot on his trails at number two. Another breakout player, pitcher Triston McKenzie, was bumped up to number three after one hell of a 2016 campaign in his first half season of pro ball.
You can't forget about the dingers, as Bobby Bradley also made the overall top 100 list and sits at fourth overall in the Tribe system following his MVP-winning campaign for High-A Lynchburg last season.
Brady Aiken comes in at No. 5 on MLB.com's list, still high, but he dropped out of the overall top 100 after failing to return to form in his comeback from Tommy John surgery in 2016. Aiken has lost the mantle of organization's top pitching prospect, with McKenzie taking the reigns, but look for him to hopefully bounce back this year now that he can really let loose on the mound (hopefully) for full-season Lake County.
The biggest rise compared to the end of 2016 rankings was Greg Allen, who makes a huge leap from #19 to #9 overall. Shane Bieber, the Indians' 2016 fourth round draft pick also moved up 10 spots from #26 to #16 after absolutely destroying opposing hitters to the tune of a 0.38 ERA in eight starts for Low-A Mahoning Valley.
Other notable moves: Ryan Merritt bumps up six spots from #29 to #23 following his solid campaign and ALCS heroics while Rob Kaminsky moves up four places after a very under the radar but successful 2016 season in Double-A Akron.
Five players made their debuts on the list, most notably speedster Gabriel Mejia, who jumped all the way from unranked to #20 after a spectacular 2016 campaign for Low-A Mahoning Valley which saw him lead the league in hits while coming in second in runs and stolen bases. Joining Mejia making their top 30 debuts were 2016 breakout players Julian Merryweather (RHP), Andrew Calica (OF) and Micah Miniard (RHP). The final player to debut was left-handed pitcher Tim Cooney, who the Indians signed as a free agent in the offseason from the St. Louis Cardinals.
Lastly, before we move on to the grades and rankings, there was one huge difference between the MLB list and the Let's Go Tribe fan voting, and that was shortstop prospect Willi Castro. Castro is still only 19 years old and finished last season at High-A Lynchburg, He's currently ranked #13 for MLB's list but failed to make the LGT top 20, although he did get some votes.
* * *
Now let's break down some charts. Here is when the Top 30 prospects are expected to debut, according to MLB.com's own ETAs. Listed below each year is the player(s) expected to debut, as well as their position and ranking in MLB.com's list in parenthesis.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||
| B. Zimmer (OF, #1 | F. Mejia (C, #2) | T. McKenzie (RHP, #3) | N. Jones (3B, #6) | ||
| E. Gonzalez (SS, #8) | B. Bradley (1B, #4) | B. Aiken (LHP, #5) | W. Benson (OF, #7) | ||
| G. Allen (OF, #9) | Y. Chang (SS, #11) | J. Hillman (LHP, #12) | G. Mejia (OF, #20) | ||
| Y. Diaz (3B/OF, #10) | W. Castro (SS, #13) | S. Bieber (RHP, #16) | O. Gonzalez (OF, #28) | ||
| R. Kaminsky (LHP, #14) | T. Krieger (2B, #18) | A. Civale (RHP, #21) | M. Miniard (RHP, #30) | ||
| A. Plutko (RHP, #15) | M. Mathias (2B, #19) | L. Ice (C, #22) | |||
| S. Morimando (LHP, #17) | J. Merryweather (RHP #26) | A. Calica (OF, #29) | |||
| R. Merritt (LHP, #23) | |||||
| T. Cooney (LHP, #24) | |||||
|
S. Armstrong (RHP, #25) |
|
||||
|
N. Rodriguez (1B, #27) |
|
The important thing to keep in mind here is that these are rough estimates, at best. You never know what kind of setback a player will have, or when a given player will surge ahead of his projection. Six of the players listed have already made their MLB debuts, although they haven't lost their rookie status. Poor Shawn Armstrong debuted in 2015 and is still eligible.
Rob Kaminsky may have an ETA of 2017, but with so much starting pitching depth already available, it seems highly unlikely that he'll get an opportunity barring a barrage of injuries.
The immediate takeaway from this ETA chart is that 2017 is going to be a hell of a year. Four Top 10 players are expected to debut, including 2/3 of a potentially great outfield while there are easily four excellent starting pitchers who can step up (alongside Mike Clevinger and Cody Anderson, who no longer have rookie status).
* * *
Next, let's break down groups of players by position, starting with the outfielders; arguably the strongest single position in the Tribe farm system. If you did not already know, most scouting -- including from MLB.com -- is done on a 20-80 scale where 20-30 is below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average, and 70-80 is well above average.
| PLAYER | POSITION | HIT | POWER | RUN | ARM | FIELD | OVERALL | |
| Bradley Zimmer | OF | 50 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 55 | |
| Will Benson | OF | 45 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 | |
| Greg Allen | OF | 50 | 30 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 50 | |
| Yandy Diaz | OF | 55 | 35 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 | |
| Gabriel Mejia | OF | 50 | 20 | 80 | 40 | 60 | 45 | |
| Oscar Gonzalez | OF | 45 | 55 | 45 | 70 | 50 | 45 | |
| Andrew Calica | OF | 55 | 40 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 45 | |
| AVERAGE | -- | 50 | 41.42 | 57.14 | 55 | 55.71 | 48.57 |
Looking at the Indians outfield, they essentially have a crop of very promising above-average players with stats all over the place. The big stand out is Gabriel Mejia's speed, which is the only max grade of 80 in any category our of every Tribe prospect. Oscar Gonzalez's 70 arm strength was also tied for first place out of all position players. Zimmer, Benson and Gonzalez all project to be plus power hitters.
Next up, infielders.
| PLAYER | POSITION | HIT | POWER | RUN | ARM | FIELD | OVERALL | |
| Francisco Mejia | C | 55 | 45 | 40 | 70 | 50 | 55 | |
| Bobby Bradley | 1B | 45 | 60 | 20 | 50 | 40 | 55 | |
| Nolan Jones | 3B | 55 | 50 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 50 | |
| Erik Gonzalez | SS | 45 | 40 | 55 | 65 | 60 | 50 | |
| Yandy Diaz | 3B | 55 | 35 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 | |
| Yu-Cheng Chang | SS | 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | |
| Willi Castro | SS | 50 | 40 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 45 | |
| Tyler Krieger | 2B | 55 | 40 | 55 | 45 | 50 | 45 | |
| Mark Mathias | 2B | 55 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 45 | |
| Logan Ice | C | 50 | 40 | 35 | 50 | 50 | 45 | |
| Nellie Rodriguez | 1B | 45 | 55 | 20 | 40 | 50 | 45 | |
| AVERAGE | -- | 50.90 | 45 | 43.63 | 54.09 | 50.09 | 48.63 |
Before anyone complains, yes, I have Yandy Diaz listed twice since he spent as much time in the outfield last year as third base. Notably, even Bobby Bradley's seemingly insane power only registers as a 60, so that's a pretty difficult category to make a name for yourself in. Francisco Mejia is the other Tribe position player with a cannon arm while Erik Gonzalez was the best-rated defensive infielder.
And finally, pitchers.
| PLAYER | HANDEDNESS | FASTBALL | SLIDER | CURVEBALL | CHANGEUP | CONTROL | OVERALL | |
| Triston McKenzie | RHP | 60 | -- | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | |
| Brady Aiken | LHP | 55 | -- | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
| Juan Hillman | LHP | 55 | -- | 50 | 55 | 50 | 50 | |
| Rob Kaminsky | LHP | 50 | -- | 55 | 45 | 50 | 45 | |
| Adam Plutko | RHP | 50 | 50 | 40 | 60 | 55 | 45 | |
| Shane Bieber | RHP | 50 | 50 | -- | 50 | 55 | 45 | |
| Shawn Morimando | LHP | 50 | 60 | 45 | 50 | 45 | 45 | |
| Aaron Civale | RHP | 50 | 60 | 45 | 45 | 55 | 45 | |
| Ryan Merritt | LHP | 45 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 45 | |
| Tim Cooney | LHP | 50 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 45 | |
| Shawn Armstrong | RHP | 60 | 55 | 40 | -- | 40 | 45 | |
| Julian Merryweather | RHP | 60 | -- | 45 | 50 | 55 | 45 | |
| Micah Miniard | RHP | 60 | -- | 50 | 40 | 45 | 45 | |
| AVERAGE | -- | 53.46 | 51.43 | 48.75 | 50.83 | 51.54 | 46.54 |
Three starters tied for best fastball with Triston McKenzie, Micah Miniard and Julian Merryweather, although Merryweather has reportedly been able to hit the upper 90s when he really wants to reach back. Reliever Shawn Armstrong was also in the mix. Of note, Brady Aiken had a 65-grade fastball pre-surgery so keep an eye out this year in case it returns
Shawn Morimando earns a first place tie for best slider with reliever-turned-starter 2016 draft pick Aaron Civale, while Brady Aiken retains the best curveball in the system. Jack of all trades Adam Plutko rounds out the list with the best change-up and it's no shock that Ryan Merritt tops the list with the best control in the system.