FanPost

Examining extra inning proposal

MLB is considering extra innings to begin with a runner on 2B.

This link gives the chance of scoring under various situations. It also gives expected runs. We can find actual run scoring in each inning here. With a bit of hand-waving we can determine an approximate curve for runs scoring. It looks something this.


normal on 1B on 2B
Score 0 73.00% 59.00% 39.00%
Score Any 26.60% 41.00% 61.00%
Score 1 14.63% 22.55% 33.55%
Score 2 6.58% 10.15% 15.10%
Score 3 2.96% 4.57% 6.79%
Score 4 1.33% 2.05% 3.06%
Score 5+ 1.09% 1.68% 2.50%

Based on those curves we can determine the odds of teams scoring with a runner at 2nd and no outs, and compare this with the normal rules of baseball, as well as beginning with a runner on 1st.


normal on 1B on 2B
runs scored 0.482 0.743 1.105
no score 53.29% 34.81% 15.21%
1-1 tie 2.14% 5.09% 11.26%
2-2 tie 0.43% 1.03% 2.28%
end after inn. 44.02% 58.80% 70.64%
continues 55.98% 41.20% 29.36%

Around 55% of extra inning games go on to the next inning with the normal rules. If the inning started with a runner at 2nd, only 29% of games that reach the 10th inning would see an 11th inning.

Inning normal on 1B on 2B
10 8.76% 8.76% 8.76%
11 4.90% 3.61% 2.57%
12 2.75% 1.49% 0.76%
13 1.54% 0.61% 0.22%
14 0.86% 0.25% 0.07%
15 0.48% 0.10% 0.02%
16 0.27% 0.04% 0.01%
17 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
18 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
19 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
20 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%

Here's the expected distribution of extra inning games. In the last five years of MLB, 8.76% of games have reached the 10th inning. Just under 5% of games have reached the 11th inning. The numbers here are estimates, but the actual observed games are a pretty close match.

FanPosts are reader-generated, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Covering the Corner or the Covering the Corner staff.