DATE: November 2, 2018.
LET’S GO TRIBE HEADLINE: Bryan Shaw earns save as Mets clinch World Series title against Indians.
SUBHEADLINE: ...why?
BODY:
Of all the tragedies to befall Cleveland sports teams over the years, we kind of deserve this one most.
Capping another excellent season — this time as a closer rather than a setup man; this time beloved rather than besieged — Bryan Shaw stabilized the backend of a talented but inconsistent bullpen under the watch of first year manager Mickey Callaway. The result? The most saves in the National League, and the chance to deliver comeuppance to a fanbase that never gave him the credit he deserved. Shaw also earned World Series MVP honors along with his championship ring, as he pitched brilliantly in four games, going more than an inning in each appearance.
We shrugged it off when Callaway snatched up Shaw in the offseason. It made sense for the Mets; why wouldn’t Callaway want to bring along a familiar arm he could rely on, and at a competitive price? For the Indians, it didn’t appear to be much of an issue. The clubhouse is well-stocked with arms, and even now the inventory doesn’t look like it will be depleted anytime soon. It certainly didn’t affect the team too badly during the season. After all, they reached the World Series for the second time in three seasons.
However, if we’d payed more attention to Shaw’s numbers in 2017, and how they would potentially translate in another run scoring environment, we might have given it a second thought.
Here are some pertinent numbers
- In 2017, Shaw induced the highest percentage of weak contact in his career, by six percentage points (per Fangraphs). Most of this shift came due to a career low in medium contact batted balls. The percentage of hard hit balls remained about the same, which suggests an interesting trend — while Shaw missed his mark about as often as always, his stuff was much better when he nailed it. The rest of the numbers bear this out - Shaw’s GB%, IFFB%, and xFIP were all the lowest of his entire Indians tenure. His HR/9 was at the second lowest, at .59. He accumulated the highest fWAR of his career, and ranked in the top 20 by that metric among all relievers.
- Shaw remained slightly below average at inducing whiffs. As he relies on his cutter, with a slider mixed in, weak contact is the goal. Of 155 qualified relievers, Shaw’s K/9 rate remained in the bottom third.
- Despite having a career year, according to the metrics, Shaw actually suffered from the highest BABIP of his career: .311 vs. a career average of .287. It’s good news when your best season ever might have actually been a little unlucky.
- Shaw continued to excel when used most frequently. He made 23 appearances without any days of rest. Players hit .139/.200./152 against him in those games. That comes out to an OPS+ of 10 in 22.1 IP.
Keep in mind, the majority of these appearances took place in Cleveland. Progressive Field remains a fairly neutral park, though it has skewed pitcher-friendly in the last couple of seasons due to the pitchers employed there. It might not be a groundbreaking statement, but I want to emphasize it again: these numbers should have indicated to us that Bryan Shaw is a reliever that can be used with reckless abandon on little or no rest, and he shines when he induces weak contact. His low whiff rate meant he might be more effective in a park that favors pitchers.
Citi Field, by the way, is consistently one of the toughest parks for hitters. It was the fifth-worst hitters park in all of baseball in 2017. It allowed the fewest number of total hits per nine innings, and the third-lowest home run rate. It remained that way in 2018*. As such, Bryan Shaw thrived, and in the postseason, it came at the expense of his old team.
*future citation needed
But why, Baseball Gods?
He’s not going to answer any of us anytime soon. Like I said, out of all the misery endured lately by Cleveland Sports teams, and the Indians specifically, this feels just. We had one of the better relievers in all of baseball for half of a decade, and most of us failed to recognize it. Many of us consistently abused him on social media. All he did in return is quietly put up excellent season, then depart for greener pastures, where he thrived.
My only complaint is that watching him earn the save in Game 7 feels a little too Old Testament to me.
END OF BODY
COMMENTS: Apocalyptic, with several bans issued.