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Latest Baseball Prospectus playoff odds have Cleveland Indians as American League favorite

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All hail our robot overlords.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball Prospectus' on-going playoff odds, which they calculated through a series of simulations, have some good news for the Cleveland IndiansThe latest odds, as of 6:58 a.m. PT on May 21, have the Indians with a 77.8 percent chance of making the playoffs -- the highest in the American League by a slim margin over the Seattle Mariners' 76.1 percent. Best of all, they also have the highest chance among American League teams of winning the World Series at 11.2 percent.

In terms of making the playoffs, the next closest American League Central  team is the Chicago White Sox at 66.7 percent, then the final three teams drop off a cliff. The current champion Kansas City Royals have just a 12.0 percent chance of making it to the playoffs, with a 0.6 percent chance of a World Series win.

The BP odds also have the Indians finishing with a .544 winning percentage, which would mean an 89-73 record, their best mark since they went 92-70 in 2013.

The only team in the majors with higher odds of winning the World Series right now are the Chicago Cubs, who have a 17.8 percent chance, according to the simulations. For some insight, here is how BP calculates the World Series odds from their own glossary page.

In order to figure the WS Win Pct, we use the odds ratio to figure out a team's expected win percentage in various playoff rounds, and then use the binomial probability mass function to find the odds of winning a five or seven game series as appropriate.

These odds are a fun to note while the Indians ride high on a five-game winning streak, but it is also very important to recognize the huge change from just a week ago. Prior to absolutely dismantling the Cincinnati Reds, the Indians had a 70 percent chance of making it to the playoffs, while the White Sox had an 80 percent chance seven days ago before their own slump. These simulations are heavily influenced by recent events, at least early in the season, and, of course, they are not a clear indicator that the Indians are destined to bring home the first World Series trophy since 1948.

But, I mean, y'know. You never know.