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As shown previously, the lack of offense appears to be slightly unfounded. And in order to improve the lineup, the Indians front office likely would have had to tap into their strongest position, starting pitching with the likely targets being Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar.
For this series, we are going to split the rotation into two parts, the front of the rotation (FOR) and back of rotation (BOR). This is mainly because the front of the rotations are usually pretty good (to an extent) and the back of the rotations are usually not.
Cleveland Indians
I am not sure what else to say that hasn't been said before. This FOR is for real and barring any injuries should dominate most of the season. I am a tad disappointed in Salazar's projections, to be honest. I think he ends up even a tad behind Carrasco's projections. And it is awesome to see the three of them all with over a 9.0 K/9 and about a 4 to 1 ration in Ks to BBs. On a historical note, this rotation could have the ability to approach the Garcia/Lemon/Wynn levels and maybe even surpass them in dominance.
Corey Kluber |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
32 |
32 |
211.0 |
9.28 |
1.97 |
3.06 |
3.11 |
5.0 |
ZIPS |
30 |
30 |
202.0 |
9.67 |
1.92 |
3.21 |
2.90 |
5.4 |
Marcel |
|
|
194.0 |
9.5 |
2.1 |
3.34 |
|
|
Carlos Carrasco |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
31 |
31 |
188.0 |
9.52 |
2.30 |
3.05 |
3.01 |
4.7 |
ZIPS |
27 |
27 |
172.3 |
10.08 |
2.04 |
3.08 |
2.79 |
4.8 |
Marcel |
|
|
154.0 |
9.5 |
2.3 |
3.62 |
|
|
Danny Salazar |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
29 |
29 |
173.0 |
9.35 |
2.68 |
3.40 |
3.53 |
3.2 |
ZIPS |
30 |
30 |
178.0 |
9.86 |
2.53 |
3.49 |
3.44 |
3.5 |
Marcel |
|
|
163.0 |
9.4 |
2.7 |
3.70 |
|
|
Chicago White Sox
As amazing as the Indians rotation is from the right-handed side, the White Sox have the best collection of left-handers in at least the AL, if not all of MLB. In the past, left-handed starters have been Kryptonite to the Tribe offense, so hopefully that trend does not continue. Sale is amazing, and rightfully is a front-runner for a Cy Young. Quintana has a 2.58 ERA in 12 career starts against the Tribe. And Rodon, the former first rounder, in my opinion, will surpass Quintana this year, although his wildness could get the best of him.
Chris Sale |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
32 |
32 |
210.0 |
10.95 |
2.05 |
2.79 |
2.88 |
5.9 |
ZIPS |
29 |
29 |
195.7 |
11.09 |
1.89 |
2.99 |
2.81 |
5.7 |
Marcel |
|
|
182.0 |
10.6 |
2.1 |
3.16 |
|
|
Jose Quintana |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
32 |
32 |
200.0 |
7.62 |
2.27 |
3.69 |
3.75 |
3.5 |
ZIPS |
32 |
32 |
195.3 |
7.65 |
2.17 |
3.73 |
3.36 |
4.3 |
Marcel |
|
|
183.0 |
7.9 |
2.3 |
3.49 |
|
|
Carlos Rodon |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
28 |
28 |
161.0 |
8.99 |
4.18 |
4.12 |
4.06 |
2.2 |
ZIPS |
25 |
25 |
158.3 |
9.61 |
3.58 |
3.81 |
3.90 |
2.5 |
Marcel |
|
|
126.0 |
8.8 |
3.8 |
3.71 |
|
|
Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander shows signs of brilliance last year after a few rough seasons. But the days of him competing for a Cy Young are likely gone. Sanchez has been good for stretches as well, but neither projection system has faith in him for 2016. Last year, the Tigers had David Price, who was a nightmare matchup for the Tribe lineup. But as the Tigers slumped last year, he was dealt to try and replenish a severely depleted farm system. He has been replaced by Jordan Zimmermann, who while a very good pitcher, is not of Price's pedigree in my eyes.
Justin Verlander |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
31 |
31 |
195.0 |
7.41 |
2.59 |
3.81 |
4.11 |
2.3 |
ZIPS |
26 |
26 |
164.3 |
7.72 |
2.57 |
3.89 |
3.61 |
2.9 |
Marcel |
|
|
147.0 |
7.7 |
2.8 |
3.98 |
|
|
Jordan Zimmermann |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
32 |
32 |
200.0 |
6.64 |
1.83 |
3.86 |
4.09 |
2.4 |
ZIPS |
30 |
30 |
181.3 |
6.80 |
1.74 |
4.02 |
3.97 |
2.4 |
Marcel |
|
|
181.0 |
7.6 |
1.8 |
3.43 |
|
|
Anibal Sanchez |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
28 |
28 |
167.0 |
7.62 |
2.54 |
3.87 |
3.94 |
2.3 |
ZIPS |
24 |
24 |
144.0 |
8.38 |
2.69 |
3.94 |
3.66 |
2.5 |
Marcel |
|
|
151.0 |
8.0 |
2.7 |
4.11 |
|
|
Kansas City Royals
The rotation has not been a major strength for the royals the past few years, it truly has been on the bullpen. In fact, since James Shields left after the 2014 season, they have struggled to replace him. They did temporarily replace him with Johnny Cueto at midseason, but he is long gone. I doubt Ian Kennedy is the answer as his stuff pales in comparison to Shields and Cueto. He is an innings guy, but I think will struggle with AL lineups after being in the NL the past six years. Both Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura have good to great stuff but have been very inconsistent, which reflects in these projections.
Edinson Volquez |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
28 |
28 |
163.0 |
6.77 |
3.24 |
4.27 |
4.30 |
1.4 |
ZIPS |
30 |
29 |
175.3 |
6.72 |
2.49 |
4.06 |
4.38 |
1.4 |
Marcel |
|
|
178.0 |
7.0 |
3.3 |
3.84 |
|
|
Yordano Ventura |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
29 |
29 |
175.0 |
8.25 |
3.21 |
3.53 |
3.66 |
2.9 |
ZIPS |
30 |
29 |
175.0 |
8.43 |
3.24 |
3.70 |
3.72 |
2.7 |
Marcel |
|
|
159.0 |
8.4 |
3.1 |
3.74 |
|
|
Ian Kennedy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
31 |
31 |
185.0 |
7.87 |
2.89 |
3.86 |
4.17 |
1.9 |
ZIPS |
28 |
28 |
159.3 |
7.85 |
3.05 |
4.80 |
4.64 |
0.8 |
Marcel |
|
|
164.0 |
8.8 |
3.1 |
4.17 |
|
|
Minnesota Twins
As much young talent the Twins have acquired and developed over the past few years, little if any progress can be seen in this most vital area of starting pitching. When Phil Hughes is your ace, that isn't saying much. Ervin Santana can be good, but hasn't shown it since 2013. The projections also do not like him because of the suspension he had last year. Kyle Gibson does have the first round pedigree and did show some signs of improvement last year. He can obviously still improve, but I don't think he has ace potential at all.
Phil Hughes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
32 |
32 |
198.0 |
6.03 |
1.38 |
4.20 |
4.26 |
2.0 |
ZIPS |
27 |
26 |
167.0 |
6.95 |
0.86 |
4.10 |
3.49 |
3.2 |
Marcel |
|
|
157.0 |
7.0 |
1.5 |
4.18 |
|
|
Ervin Santana |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
31 |
31 |
192.0 |
6.79 |
2.78 |
4.32 |
4.29 |
1.8 |
ZIPS |
23 |
23 |
141.7 |
6.61 |
2.73 |
4.51 |
4.22 |
1.5 |
Marcel |
|
|
134.0 |
7.4 |
2.8 |
3.90 |
|
|
Kyle Gibson |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
WAR |
|
Steamer |
29 |
29 |
173.0 |
6.25 |
2.94 |
4.13 |
4.08 |
2.1 |
ZIPS |
30 |
30 |
176.3 |
6.43 |
2.91 |
4.19 |
3.94 |
2.4 |
Marcel |
|
|
175.0 |
6.5 |
3.0 |
4.17 |
|
|
My take
This is the easiest position to rank the Tribe first. They are clearly the best at the top of the rotation. If the White Sox had any semblance of an offense (see the previous articles), I think they could make a run as their rotation is clearly a step above the other three. As for the other three, there isn't much separation, but I actually feel like the Royals may end up worst overall, even with the Twins as bad as they are.
I'd rank them as follows:
1. Cleveland
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota
5. Kansas City
Please post your rankings in the comments.
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