Where does Mike Napoli rank among AL Central first basemen?

After last week's posts on third base, shortstop, and second base, we move over to the first base bag in the AL Central projections.

But before we do, we need to do a little bookkeeping. When this series first started, we had ranked Giovanny Urshela as the weakest of the five third baseman. But with the breaking news of Juan Uribe joining the Tribe, we need to update our projections.

Let's just compare Urshela to Uribe:

Giovanny Urshela
	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Steamer	336	8	242	284	381	289	81	0.7
ZIPS	472	9	247	285	371	286		1.0
Marcel	344	9	244	303	384
Giovanny Urshela
	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Steamer	298	7	253	305	383	299	88	1.1
ZIPS	365	11	267	312	411
Marcel	439	13	268	319	422

Steamer has Uribe as a marginal improvement while Marcel and ZIPS like him a bit more, although I don't think those numbers have been updated since the signing. So let's just go with the marginal improvement of say 0.5 WAR for Uribe.

I think Uribe can maybe sneak into fourth in the division over Nick Castellanos, and an outside chance of third place over Trevor Plouffe, but I don't think he'll pass either in all honesty. But the drop off from Castellanos to Uribe will be marginal at best now, but for these rankings, I'll leave Uribe at fifth.

Ok, back to the regularly scheduled program, first base within the division...

Cleveland Indians

The good news is that the signing of Mike Napoli should improve the Tribe's home run power from the right side. But none of the projections really like him to recapture his 120 wRC+ from a few years back. And with good reason, he will be 34 this year and has had minor injuries off and on the past few years. Carlos Santana will probably play at least 40 games at first, with Lonnie Chisenall another option as well.

Jesus Aguilar is the top minor leaguer in the system right now by level (and #25 on the MLB Pipeline), but the top prospect is in essence Bobby Bradley who could be ready by 2017, but likely not until 2018. Mike Papi is another name to keep an eye on.

Mike Napoli
	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Steamer	377	13	224	324	399	317	100	0.7
ZIPS	439	18	229	337	426	333		1.0
Marcel	485	18	240	338	429

Chicago White Sox

When the White Sox signed Jose Abreu to a six-year, $68 million contract prior to the 2014 season, they hoped they would be getting a middle-of-the-order power bat. They have more than gotten their money's worth so far. He will be just 29 this season and won't ever get to $14 million in any year of the deal. He will be backed up by Adam LaRoche and possibly Mike Olt.

With Abreu signed through the 2019 season, there is no real need for a big time prospect at this position. But they do have Corey Zangari (#21) and Keon Barnum (#27) in their MLB Pipeline. Zangari hit .316/.358/.481 in the Arizona Rookie League and Barnum hit .257/.322/.390 in High-A ball last year.

Jose Abreu
	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Steamer	646	32	283	344	504	358	127	2.8
ZIPS	611	29	285	352	505	361		3.0
Marcel	540	29	294	355	524

Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera, perpetual MVP candidate, will be entering his age 33 season in 2016. He missed just over 40 games last year, which hurts his projections somewhat this year. If healthy, I expect Cabrera to outperform his projections, and with ease. It will be curious as to when that massive albatross of a contract stops befitting the Tigers. He signed an extension in the spring of 2014 to keep him in Detroit through at least 2023 and for $248M.

Victor Martinez is the primary backup for Cabrera, but Andrew Romine could also play there in a pinch. Like the Sox, there is no real need for a prospect at this position. MLB Pipeline has Dominic Ficociello at No. 26 and hit .293/.349/.425 in High-A and Double-A last year.

Miguel Cabrera
	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Steamer	601	26	314	398	534	394	151	4.2
ZIPS	566	24	306	389	517	375		4.0
Marcel	524	22	316	397	530

Kansas City Royals

Eric Hosmer has had sort of an every other year thing going as well himself, with 2015 being an on year. He will be 26 this season and should be entering his prime. Hosmer signed a very team friendly deal last spring that pays him $8.25 million this year but he will be a free agent in the fall.

Kendrys Morales is the backup to Hosmer but likely won't play much, barring injury. Cheslor Cuthbert, who also plays 3B is the top prospect here, but Ryan O'Hearn, who is the No. 14 MLB Pipeline prospect is the top true 1B option. He hit .263/.339/.479 in A and High-A last year.

Eric Hosmer
	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Steamer	639	18	285	348	448	343	117	2.5
ZIPS	653	19	288	347	437	340		2.0
Marcel	588	15	288	347	442

Minnesota Twins

Back in 2010, after winning the MVP, the Twins felt it was in their best interest to sign Joe Mauer to the richest ever contract for a catcher -- eight years and $184M. He then proceeded to miss half of 2011 to injury and then moved to first base full-time in 2014. He suffered a severe concussion that season and missed 40 games. He did play almost every game last year but has not returned to the hitter he used to be.

Mauer will be 33 this season, and the numbers he provides, if back to healthy, would be pretty decent for a catcher, but as a first baseman it is less than adequate. If Mauer struggles again, there are plenty of options on the roster to fill in, including Miguel Sano and Byung-ho Park. Outfielder Max Kepler is ranked as the top prospect for first, the top true first baseman is Amaurys Miner. He is No. 21 in MLB Pipeline, but only hit .199/.280/.282 in Rookie ball.

Joe Mauer
	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Steamer	568	9	274	355	390	323	103	1.3
ZIPS	571	8	276	356	387	318		2.0
Marcel	585	10	274	349	400

My take

I had no qualms when the front office signed Mike Napoli this offseason to take over first. However, I can't believe he would crack the top three in this position. His best shot is to overtake Mauer for fourth.

I think Abreu could finish as the best 1B his year, but will stick with Cabrera for another year or two, leaving Hosmer in third.

I'd rank them as follows:

1. Cabrera
2. Abreu
3. Hosmer
4. Mauer
5. Napoli

Please post your rankings in the comments.

Previous entries:

Third Base

Shortstop

Second Base