Cleveland Indians 2016 ZiPS projections: Top prospects

Before jumping right into ZiPS' projections for Cleveland Indian prospects, it is important to understand how ZiPS projects prospects. ZiPS has its own disclaimer for how they handle prospects, but I will explain more in a moment:

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Basically, ZiPS is a system that uses several years worth of a player's data and disregards most everything else such as injuries, play level, etc; in large part because those kinds of things are mostly unpredictable. Because of this, ZiPS projects every player as if they were playing on a major league roster, no matter what level they will actually be playing at or how ready they would be to play in the major leagues.

So, with prospects, looking at the raw numbers is not all that valuable. What is valuable is how the prospects compare to each other. You should not look at these numbers and say, "Oh, Bradley Zimmer's projection is bad so that means he will be terrible this year." Instead, it is more "Oh, Bradley Zimmer looks great compared to Clint Frazier and other top prospects in the league, hooray."

With position players and pitchers, I am simply taking the top three (ranked by zWAR) to go in-depth with, then grouping the next few.

Position players

Bradley Zimmer, OF

PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	WAR
519	110	22	4	13	8	6.9	28.7	.235	.306	.382	.317	1.6

Theoretically, based off his past performances, if we just shoved Bradley Zimmer into a major league roster he would not be half bad. Heck, he would be better than Abraham Almonte. However, these are just projections and ZiPS may underselling some of the work that he needs in the minors. Zimmer's strikeout rate rises from the 25.2 percent he carried at the Double-A level in 2015 to 28.7 percent in the major leagues in this scenario.

Being that Zimmer struggled once he reached Double-A last year, it is encouraging to see ZiPS so optimistic about Zimmer at higher levels already. It will be interesting to see how this projection translates when we see Zimmer face minor league pitching this year. It could be exciting.

Yandy Diaz, 3B

PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	WAR
504	114	12	3	7	5	9.7	17.1	.254	.329	.341	.304	0.7

Yandy Diaz made it as far as Triple-A last year, and ZiPS has him as a serviceable third baseman if he were to play in the majors. Based on these numbers, he definitely needs a year or two to work in the minors, but he is already ranked as the second-highest position player in the Indians organization, according to zWAR. A 17.1 percent strikeout rate would be a bit higher than he has struck out so far in his minor league career, but easily something he could work on in Triple-A this upcoming season.

Bobby Bradly, 1B

PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	WAR
453	94	17	2	24	4	7.5	38.9	.228	.291	.454	.318	0.5

Oh. Oh my. Promote 19-year-old Bobby Bradley to the majors and instantly get 24 home runs, according to ZiPS. Granted, Bradley would not do much of anything else, but wow would he hit the ball hard. ZiPS has him striking out in an absurd 38.9 percent of his plate appearances, which sounds about right due to his raw approach at the plate. Bradley has several more years before he will be knocking on the door to the majors, so hopefully he can work that total down before then.

Other top prospects

	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	WAR
Tyler Naquin	402	84	17	3	7	8	6.5	28.9	.229	.285	.349	.284	0.5
Clint Frazier	577	117	24	3	19	10	7.8	34.0	.225	.293	.393	.306	0.3
Tony Wolters	330	61	10	1	2	2	6.7	29.1	.204	.265	.264	.243	0.3
Erik Gonzalez	553	122	22	6	8	12	3.6	24.8	.232	.262	.342	.270	0.3

The name that sticks out here the most is obviously Clint Frazier. On most lists, he is the Indians No. 2 overall prospect, but ZiPS sees him as the fifth best position player, behind even Tyler Naquin. However, most of Frazier's hype comes from his ceiling; he still needs a lot of work in the minors, especially on his plate approach. As of right now, seeing him this low in ZiPS projections is not anything to freak out about. If he remains this poor in the next couple of years, that is when you start to worry.

Another surprise is Tony Wolters, who still remains on the Indians 40-man roster, although he would have no place in the majors right now with that .204/.265/.264 slash line. This is still higher than most probably see him. Potential trade piece Erik Gonzalez is not doing the Indians any favors with those projections.

Pitchers

Dylan Baker, SP

G	GS	IP	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
12	12	60.0	14.9	12.7	.293	.480	.477	0.0

It is telling about what's to come that the highest-rated Indians pitching prospect has a projected 0.0 zWAR. But when you think about it, throwing an under-developed pitcher straight into the majors would be far more damaging than a position player, so it makes sense that they would be rated lower.

The 23-year-old Dylan Baker was one of the players in danger of being plucked from the Indians in December's Rule 5 draft, but he remains with the organization. His biggest asset is his strikeout totals, and ZiPS has him striking out 14.9 percent of batters if he reached the majors. He became a highly-touted prospect last year because he finally got his walk rate down, but ZiPS sees that going back up to 12.7 percent.

Brian Moran, SP

G	GS	IP	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
36	0	45.0	18.6	9.0	.296	4.60	4.46	-0.4

Speaking of the Rule 5 draft, the Indians chose Brian Moran in the minor-league portion of the draft from the Seattle Mariners. He is a lefty reliever who made it as far as Triple-A in 2013 before Tommy John surgery sidelined him for all of 2014. He has struggled with control since coming back, posting a career-high 12.8 percent walk rate at Double-A in 2015.

ZiPS actually projects Moran closer to a pre-Tommy John walk rate, but his strikeout rate would be nowhere near the 37.1 percent he struck out over 62.2 innings in 2013.

Joe Colon, RP

G	GS	IP	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
28	12	81.7	15.5	9.5	.299	5.07	4.77	-0.6

Joe Colon was spectacular in 17.1 innings at Triple-A last season, posting a 32.9 percent strikeout rate and 4.1 walk rate, but he had a bit of bad luck with a .389 BABIP.

Just last year he became a full-time reliever, so ZiPS has him starting 12 games in the majors but there is almost no chance of that happening if he actually made it to the Indians this year. It is interesting that ZiPS projects him higher than other top pitching prospects such as Mike Clevinger, Adam Plutko, and Rob Kaminsky.

Other top prospects

	G	GS	IP	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
Adam Plutko	27	27	142.3	17.4	5.9	.308	5.06	4.62	-0.6
Mike Clevinger	21	20	99.7	18.3	9.4	.300	5.33	5.09	-0.8
Felipe Paulino	13	13	61.3	15.4	10.5	.305	5.87	5.62	-0.9
Nick Maronde	39	7	70.0	20.1	11.4	.309	5.91	5.56	-1.4
Ryan Merritt	25	25	150.0	13.5	4.4	.302	5.52	4.89	-1.6

Most notably absent from this list are Rob Kaminsky and Justus Sheffield, who are generally considered to be some of the Indians top pitching prospects. However, ZiPS does not have even have either of them in the top 8.

It is nice seeing Mike Clevinger this high on the list, but he has an ETA of 2016, and could potentially be in the mix for the Indians fifth starter. Seeing him carry a 5.33 ERA and 5.09 FIP in his debut season would not be a good sign. Although, maybe that spectacular Indians infield defense can work some BABIP magic for him.