Reviewing the 2016 Hall of Fame balloting results

The Hall of Fame announced their results today with just Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza gaining entrance. But Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Trevor Hoffman all crossed the 65% barrier, so the odds are very good for their election next year.

Although I am disappointed that some others did not get elected, and with my previous posts, you already know why, I do have a particular bone to pick as to why I feel the voting is very flawed. In previous decades, a vote of just two players was not uncommon, but still low. But that occurred when the AL and NL only had eight or twelve teams. With expansion, there are many more players playing this fine game of base ball (sic). The ratio of players to get elected should go up, not go down as more and more players are in the major leagues. To vote just two players, with a completely stacked ballot is in my opinion, just ludicrous. Had those other three been elected, the logjam would have dissipated just a little more for next season.

Anyways, onto the results.

Ken Griffey Jr.

	2016 Vote
Ken Griffey	99.3 %

Griffey's selection was a no doubter. Elected on his first try, he joins the ranks of many other worthy first ballot Hall of Famers. His percentage was the best in history, surpassing Tom Seaver's record set in 1992 with 98.8%.

bWAR: 83.6; JAWS: 68.8; fWAR: 77.7

Mike Piazza

	2013 Vote	2014 Vote	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Mike Piazza	57.8 %	62.2 %	69.9 %	83.0 %

With the advancement of Piazza, there is hope for some of the alleged PED users out there to gain entrance.

bWAR: 59.4; JAWS: 51.2; fWAR: 62.5

Jeff Bagwell

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Jeff Bagwell	41.7 %	56.0 %	59.6 %	54.3 %	55.7 %	71.6 %

I was pleased to see how much Bagwell jumped this year. He almost surely will get in next year. I am hoping the trimming of some of the older voters helped in this regard.

bWAR: 79.6; JAWS: 63.9; fWAR: 80.2

Tim Raines

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Tim Raines	24.3	22.6	30.4	37.5	48.7	52.2	46.1	55.0	69.8

Raines also saw a pretty decent jump. I am also fairly certain he will gain entrance next year. And that is a good thing since next year will be his final chance.

bWAR: 69.1; JAWS: 55.6; fWAR: 66.4

Trevor Hoffman

	2016 Vote
Trevor Hoffman	67.3 %

I think this is pretty outstanding total for a true closer on his first ballot. He should get in next year, which would leave Mariano Rivera as the likely only first year ballot closer.

bWAR: 28.4; JAWS: 24.0; fWAR: 26.1

Curt Schilling

	2013 Vote	2014 Vote	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Curt Schilling	38.8 %	29.2 %	39.2 %	52.3 %

Schilling also saw a marked improvement. I don't think he can jump another 23% next year, but he might have a decent chance in 2018.

bWAR: 79.9; JAWS: 64.5; fWAR: 79.7

Roger Clemens

	2013 Vote	2014 Vote	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Roger Clemens	37.6 %	35.4 %	37.5 %	45.2 %

With some of the older voters knocked off this year, Clemens saw a rise in his total. But I don't think it will be enough to carry over the 75% threshold. At least not yet. He does have six more years of voter transition to possibly help.

bWAR: 140.3; JAWS: 103.3; fWAR: 133.7

Barry Bonds

	2013 Vote	2014 Vote	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Barry Bonds	36.2 %	34.7 %	36.8 %	44.3 %

As noted previously, Bonds and Clemens go hand in hand. See above.

bWAR: 162.4; JAWS: 117.6; fWAR: 164.4

Edgar Martinez

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Edgar Martinez	36.2 %	32.9 %	36.5 %	35.9 %	25.2 %	27.0 %	43.4 %

Martinez saw a fairly decent spike this year. But he only has three more chances to make it. Can he get a 32% increase in three years? I am thinking no.

bWAR: 68.3; JAWS: 56.0; fWAR: 65.5

Mike Mussina

	2014 Vote	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Mike Mussina	20.3 %	24.6 %	43.0 %

On the other hand, I think Mussina might be able to make up that 32%. One, I think he is a better candidate than Martinez, and two, he has seven more years to climb up the list.

bWAR: 83.0; JAWS: 63.8; fWAR: 82.2

Alan Trammell

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Alan Trammell	17.4 %	22.4 %	24.3 %	36.8 %	33.6 %	20.8 %	25.1 %	40.9 %
		2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
		15.7 %	14.1 %	13.8 %	16.9 %	17.7 %	13.4 %	18.2 %

Trammell also saw a pretty decent jump this year, but he had way, way too far to go. He actually was doing decent in 2012 and 2013, but fell off more recently. With where he finished, he could have a decent chance during the Expansion Era voting.

bWAR: 70.4; JAWS: 57.5; fWAR: 63.7

Lee Smith

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Lee Smith	44.5 %	47.3 %	45.3 %	50.6 %	47.8 %	29.9 %	30.2 %	34.1 %
			2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
			42.3 %	36.6 %	38.8 %	45.0 %	39.8 %	43.3 %

Like Trammell, Smith had a huge decline, only his happened in 2014. He started out way better than Trammell, even cracking the 50% barrier once. But next year will be his last chance, and I don't think he'll make it. I also think he will fare worse than Trammell when it comes to the Expansion Era voting.

bWAR: 29.6; JAWS: 25.4; fWAR: 26.6

Fred McGriff

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Fred McGriff	21.5 %	17.9 %	23.9 %	20.7 %	11.7 %	12.9 %	20.9 %

A modest improvement for the Crime Dog, but he only has three more chances. He won't likely break 50%.

bWAR: 52.4; JAWS: 44.1; fWAR: 56.9

Jeff Kent

	2014 Vote	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Jeff Kent	15.2 %	14.0 %	16.6 %

Kent is really underrated. He should have been higher. But, I don't like his chances either.

bWAR: 55.2; JAWS: 45.4; fWAR: 56.1

Larry Walker

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Larry Walker	20.3 %	22.9 %	21.6 %	10.2 %	11.8 %	15.5 %

Walker is a better candidate than Smith McGriff and Kent, but somehow ended up this low. He likely won't have enough push to get much higher in the totals.

bWAR: 72.6; JAWS: 58.6; fWAR: 68.7

Mark McGwire

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Mark McGwire	23.5	23.6	21.9	23.7	19.8	19.5	16.9	11.0	10.0	12.3

What little support he had, seemed to vanish in 2014. This was his final chance, and I don't think he'll have a prayer with the Expansion Era voters.

bWAR: 62.0; JAWS: 51.9; fWAR: 66.3

Gary Sheffield

	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Gary Sheffield	11.7 %	11.6 %

He did enough to make another vote, but I doubt he'll ever crack 20% of the vote.

bWAR: 60.3; JAWS: 49.1; fWAR: 62.1

Billy Wagner

	2016 Vote
Billy Wagner	10.5 %

I think I called this one pretty well. I think he deserves better as he is comparable to Hoffman, but Hoffman is better, at least to me. Maybe voters will give him a closer look next season.

bWAR: 28.1; JAWS: 24.0; fWAR: 24.2

Sammy Sosa

	2013 Vote	2014 Vote	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Sammy Sosa	12.5 %	7.2 %	6.6 %	7.0 %

I am shocked he got enough to stick around one more time.

bWAR: 58.4; JAWS: 51.0; fWAR: 60.1

And that will do it for the players who will return for a vote in 2017. Next up, the players who received less than 5% and will not be around next year:

Jim Edmonds

	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Jim Edmonds	N/A	2.5 %

I am shocked Edmonds didn't even make the 5%. For a player with his numbers, he shouldn't be a one and done.

bWAR: 60.3; JAWS: 51.4; fWAR: 64.5

Nomar Garciaparra

	2014 Vote	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Nomar Garciaparra	N/A	5.5 %	1.8 %

Great peak, but should not have made it to a second ballot in my opinion.

bWAR: 44.2; JAWS: 43.6; fWAR: 41.4

Mike Sweeney

	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Mike Sweeney	N/A	0.7 %

Sweeney got three courtesy votes.

bWAR: 24.7; JAWS: 23.2; fWAR: 21.1

Jason Kendall

	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Jason Kendall	N/A	0.5 %

Kendall received just two courtesy votes.

bWAR: 41.5; JAWS: 35.9; fWAR: 39.8

David Eckstein

	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
David Eckstein	N/A	0.5 %

I am not sure how Eckstein got two courtesy votes. If I was going to waste one on courtesy, I would have given it to Glaus instead.

bWAR: 20.8; JAWS: 19.9; fWAR: 16.8

Garrett Anderson

	2015 Vote	2016 Vote
Garret Anderson	N/A	0.2 %

Received just one courtesy vote.

bWAR: 25.6; JAWS: 24.2; fWAR: 24.0

And each of the following players did not receive a single vote. Other than the aforementioned Glaus, I am ok with that.

Troy Glaus

bWAR: 37.9; JAWS: 35.3; fWAR: 34.4

Mike Hampton

bWAR: 29.0; JAWS: 27.3; fWAR: 28.0

Luis Castillo

bWAR: 28.9; JAWS: 26.4; fWAR: 28.4

Randy Winn

bWAR: 27.5; JAWS: 26.1; fWAR: 28.1

Mike Lowell

bWAR: 24.8; JAWS: 24.1; fWAR: 26.0

Mark Grudzielanek

bWAR: 26.3; JAWS: 23.4; fWAR: 23.2

Brad Ausmus

bWAR: 16.4; JAWS: 15.7; fWAR: 17.2

My take:

The voters got it correct on Griffey and Piazza, obviously, but missed the boat on many good candidates. Please check my previously published ballot. I have no qualms with Wagner and Walker missing out, but the rest on my ballot I still think merit inclusion. But I could be convinced that Wagner and Walker each deserves a spot in next year's discussion.

Speaking of next year's ballot, the following players are eligible to become first time nominees to be voted on for 2017 election (although not all of them may actually get on the ballot):

Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Javier Vasquez, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, Jorge Posada, Magglio Ordonez, Derrek Lee, Tim Wakefield, Edgar Renteria, Melvin Mora, Carlos Guillen, Jason Varitek, Orlando Cabrera, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell, Freddy Sanchez, Arthur Rhodes, Julio Lugo, Dannys Baez.

I personally believe both Pudge and Manny would normally be first time ballot guys, but there is no way Manny gets voted in with his failed PED tests, and Pudge also has some of that PED taint as well. I also believe Pudge was a much better catcher than Piazza. Vlad, Posada and Wakefield may get some support, with Posada and Wakefield carrying the Red Sox/Yankee contingents, but nobody else excites me.

Without doing a deep dive (we'll tackle that next winter), I would vote for Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Hoffman, Martinez, Rodriguez and Ramirez. That would leave Walker and Wagner just on the outside, when they shouldn't have to be if Bagwell, Raines, Schilling all got in this like year like they should have.