Cleveland Indians 2016 ZiPS projections: Infielders

Dan Szymborski of ESPN and ThinkFactory has been periodically releasing his ZiPS projections for teams around the league, and on Monday, he got around to our own Cleveland Indians. Over the next week, we are going to break down what ZiPS sees the Tribe doing in 2016.

ZiPS, if you did not already know, is a projection system that uses four years of weighted data for batters between the ages of 24 and 38, and three years of data for anyone outside of that date range. The system is also not intended to predict injuries. If a player missed time in recent years due to injuries, he will be projected to miss time in 2016 solely because he did so in the past, not because ZiPS is projecting him to be injured again.

As with every new projection released, we will be splitting this into several posts to go in-depth with what ZiPS projects, how it compares to Steamer, and what it means for each individual player on the Indians. This time around it will be Infielders (today), outfielders (January 6), pitchers (January 7), prospects (January 8), and finally bench players (January 9). So let’s get right into it and see how ZiPS sees the Tribe’s young infield performing in 2016.

Yan Gomes, C

ZiPS sees Yan Gomes bouncing back from an injury-plagued 2015 season, but still not to his excellent 2013 and 2014 seasons when he was worth 3.3 fWAR and 4.5 fWAR, respectively. The 430 plate appearances are right on track with what Steamer projections, but ZiPS has him as a much better offensive catcher over those at-bats.

Gomes' projected plate approach is close to his 2013 and 2014 form, but his power is nowhere near the same. A .430 slugging percentage would be well behind the .481 he slugged in 2013, and the .472 he put up in 2014.

Mike Napoli, 1B

While the deal has still not been made official by the Indians, Mike Napoli has reportedly signed a 1-year, $7 million deal with the club. Will he be worth it? At least offensively, according to ZiPS, it's gonna be close. Napoli's slash line is better across the board than last season, which was the worst offensive year of his career, which is encouraging for a first baseman who will be 34 years old when the first baseman.

Neither ZiPS nor Steamer has him dropping off dramatically in the year he will be under contract with the Indians. However, a 29.4 percent strikeout rate would be the highest of his career since 2013.

Jason Kipnis, 2B

Similar to Steamer, ZiPS sees Kipnis coming back down to Earth after the 5.2 fWAR season he experienced in 2015. His projected 9.3 walk rate would be a step above the 8.9 percent he had in 2015, however, but his on-base percentage is still far below the .372 he had.

Francisco Lindor, SS

Sophomore slump? What Sophomore slump? ZiPS sees Lindor dropping a bit offensively across the board, but still putting up a solid year at shortstop for the Indians. He is, however, projected to hit 15 home runs, which would be three more than he slugged in 2015. It should also be noted that Lindor is projected to have the highest zWAR among Indians position players.

Giovanny Urshela, 3B

It could be for any number of reasons, but whatever it is, ZiPS does not see Giovanny Urshela compiling a full season's worth of plate appearances. Urshela's projected slash line would be only slightly better than the .225/.279/.330 he hit in 2015, and his defense may not be good enough to mask that hole in the lineup, no matter how good his glove is.

ZiPS has Urshela's walk rate getting worse (6.3% in 2015), but his strikeout rate dropping as well (20.1% in 2015), which is encouraging. Despite 78 more projected plate appearances compared to Steamer, ZiPS only has Urshela hitting only nine home runs, to Steamer's 10.

Carlos Santana, DH (projection is as a 1B)

There is no telling how Carlos Santana will adjust to being the team's full-time designated hitter now that Napoli is taking over first base duties, but according to ZiPS he is set for one of the better offensive years of his career. A .366 on-base percentage would be his highest since 2013, and 21 home runs would be closer to what the Indians need out of him.