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What kind of numbers is Carlos Santana going to end up with?

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Yeah, I'm responsible now... the price you pay for being successful.

Today is Carlos Santana's 29th birthday. I hope he got the Edible Arrangement I sent him... I went heavy on the pineapple. Carlos remains my favorite player on the team, and while that doesn't mean quite the same thing as it did when I was kid, it's also not nothing. To honor the man who inspired the only Photoshop job of my life, I thought I'd add one more entry to what was quite possibly the least popular series I've ever put together in my time at LGT, looking at what Bill James' "Favorite Toy" projection system has to say about Santana's eventual career totals.

It's a relatively quick-and-easy projection system, using only a player's age, career totals to date, and numbers from the three previous seasons in order to estimate where their numbers will end up. That's not especially scientific, but I've always enjoyed looking at the results, all the same.

If you care yo go back and look at the earlier entries, here they are:

Alright, here's a look at the career totals projected for Carlos...

  • Hits: 1,494
  • 2B: 349
  • HR: 260
  • Runs: 819
  • RBI: 891
  • Walks: 1,150
Those numbers wouldn't be enough to put him in the Hall of Fame or anything, but they're very solid totals. He'd be among the top 80 or so all-time in walks.

And here are the chances Carlos is given of hitting various career milestones:

  • 1,000 hits: 97%
  • 1,500 hits: 49%
  • 2,000 hits: 15%
  • 300 doubles: 80%
  • 400 doubles: 30%
  • 487 doubles (this would set a franchise record): 10%
  • 1,000 runs: 23%
  • 1,000 RBI: 34%
  • 200 HR: 97%
  • 300 HR: 30%
  • 338 HR (this would set a franchise record): 18%
  • 800 walks: 97%
  • 1,009 walks (this would set a franchise record): 75%
  • 1,500 walks: 17%

(Obviously in order for him to set any franchise records, he'd need to not only hit those numbers, but spend his entire career with the Indians, which isn't very likely to happen. Those numbers still seemed worth noting though.)

A very happy birthday to Carlos, may he celebrate the next dozen while still wearing an Indians uniform!