Cleveland Indians predictions contest 2015 - Mike Aviles

This post is part of a series allowing the LGT community to weigh in with their predictions for the 2015 season. Bragging rights are at stake! There will be two separate contests, one for hitters and one for pitchers. Last year's contest was scored against the field, however, this year's points system will work relative to the stats - the closer to final number in each category, the more points you can earn, despite what other participants predict. You need not submit predictions for every single player in order to win, but doing so will increase your chances to win.

For position players, you'll be asked to predict each player's plate appearances (PA), home runs (HR), stolen bases (SB), batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG).

Comments for each post will remain active until the night of Sunday, April 5th, 2015.

Click here for previous entries in this series.

Mike Aviles

Handsome Mike just finished up his worst full season in the big leagues in his career. That, my friends, isn't encouraging. His walk rate continued on its 3 year decline while his on base and slugging percentages both cratered. The good news is that there should really only be two outcomes, improve or get released. I think the later might be hard with someone as popular as Aviles, but Lindor's performance in AAA will hopefully force the hand.

Courtesy of FanGraphs

The Predictions

Improvement! ZiPS is the most optimistic, showing that he'll post his best year since 2011. That ain't nothin'. Steamer shows a significant less amount of PAs, so they have him losing playing time, hopefully because isn't playing the OF and/or he's been replaced entirely by some form of Walters/Ramirez/Lindor/Vincent Adultman.

What I Think

We have seen the last of Mike Aviles, one way or another. There are better, more productive options in the system, either with Zach Walters or Lindor taking shortstop duties and Jose Ramirez moving to the utility role. The production, however, will look a lot like last year. I'm inclined to agree more with Steamer and don't see much hope for the increase ZiPS does.

PA: 275
HR: 4
SB: 8
AVG: .251
OBP: .272
SLG: .346

Your Turn

Feel free to make numbers up if you'd like but, if you'd rather be more scientifically accurate, you can use these calculators to help you get there:

• Batting Average
• On-Base Percentage
• Slugging

To submit your entry, simply copy and paste the text below into a new comment and fill in your predictions!

PA:
HR:
SB:
AVG:
OBP:
SLG: