Cleveland Indians predictions contest 2015 - David Murphy

This post is part of a series allowing the LGT community to weigh in with their predictions for the 2015 season. Bragging rights are at stake! There will be two separate contests, one for hitters and one for pitchers. Last year's contest was scored against the field, however, this year's points system will work relative to the stats - the closer to final number in each category, the more points you can earn, despite what other participants predict. You need not submit predictions for every single player in order to win, but doing so will increase your chances to win.

For position players, you'll be asked to predict each player's plate appearances (PA), home runs (HR), stolen bases (SB), batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG).

Comments for each post will remain active until the night of Sunday, April 5th, 2015.

Click here for previous entries in this series.

David Murphy

Old Magic Hands found himself to be about league average last year, something we'd hoped he outperform in his first year with the Tribe. There isn't much reason to think he was particularly unlucky and it was quite disconcerting to see his slugging remain below the .400 mark. Read more about his up and down season here and here.

Courtesy of FanGraphs

The Predictions

Steamer thinks something is going to happen with David Murphy, whether it be injury or losing serious playing time. In the limited amount of time, they find him a bit more effective than ZiPS, but how much more valuable can 1/3 of the PAs be (half as valuable if you're looking at their WAR)?

What I Think

I typically don't find much value in predicting similar output from a 33 year old player who's output from year to year looks like the Olympic moguls course, but I'm not sure where else to go here. He's going to lose playing time and it will be to Brandon Moss. However, at least early, he'll benefit from Nick Swisher being on the DL. Should Swisher continue to be ineffective or struggle to get healthy, Murphy will get a chance to provide to the offense. I just don't think he'll do enough to warrant 400+ more PAs.

PA: 349
HR: 6
SB: 1
AVG: .269
OBP: .315
SLG: .391

Your Turn

Feel free to make numbers up if you'd like but, if you'd rather be more scientifically accurate, you can use these calculators to help you get there:

• Batting Average
• On-Base Percentage
• Slugging

To submit your entry, simply copy and paste the text below into a new comment and fill in your predictions!

PA:
HR:
SB:
AVG:
OBP:
SLG: