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Sports book puts over/under on Indians wins at 81

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Where is the smart money going to land?

Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Las Vegas Reno has posted over/under betting lines for all 30 MLB teams, and it seems like don't expect much optimism from Tribe fans. The Atlantis Casino's sports book posted its figures late last week, and their line for the Indians is 81 wins, an even .500 record.

I think to most of us, that seems on a low side. The Tribe finished with a winning record in each of the last two years, didn't lose anyone of significance during the offseason, and are relatively young. Far be it for me to feel a winning record is assured (I'm not nearly optimistic enough a sports fan for that sort of confidence), but I definitely feel better about it than I have heading into most seasons in the last dozen years or so.

The Indians seem like a good bet.

Here is Atlantis' initial line for each team:

Nationals 93 Angels 87.5
Dodgers 91 Tigers 86.5
Cardinals 87.5 Red Sox 86
Pirates 85.5 Mariners 85
Giants 85 Orioles 84.5
Padres 84 Blue Jays 83.5
Cubs 81.5 Royals 83
Marlins 81.5 Athletics 82.5
Mets 81 White Sox 82
Brewers 80 Indians 81
Reds 79 Yankees 80
Braves 73.5 Rays 77.5
Diamondbacks 72.5 Rangers 76.5
Rockies 70.5 Astros 73.5
Phillies 67 Twins 68.5

It's no surprise to see the Nationals and Dodgers with the highest figures, as they've been projected for the most wins by both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs. If I were picking one of those two teams, I'd go with Los Angeles, both because they seem a little better to me, and because you get the extra couple wins of cushion with their over/under number.

Elsewhere in the National League, I'm surprised at hos low the figure for the Cubs is. I think many have been too quick to lump them in with other strong World Series contenders, and wouldn't be surprised if their win total did end up not far from 81.5, but these figures aren't based on how many games the head of the sports book actually thinks they're going to win, they're based on what that he thinks will draw even betting on both sides; I expect the Cubs' number to rise pretty sharply between now and Opening Day, as legions of hopeful fans put a lot of money on the over.

On the AL side, it's no surprise to see no team with a very high over/under, and no surprise to see so many teams bunched together. The Indians are the team I like best to the clear their line, while I'd bet the under on the Orioles, Royals, and White Sox, none of whom I expect to finish with a winning record.

If you were at the Atlantis this week, where would your money be getting put?