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Reviewing the holdover candidates on the 2016 Hall of Fame ballot

Will the 2016 ballot be as fruitful as the amazing class of 2015 of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio?

Last years Hall of Fame recipients
Last years Hall of Fame recipients
Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, we did a pretty intense review of the majority of the candidates on the ballot. Rather than doing a complete rehash of those candidates, this will be a brief review of how each of the non-elected candidates performed relative to the previous season. We will also have a few articles on some of the new candidates that might get elected.

But first, a recap of the players from last year, in descending order from last year's ballot:

Mike Piazza [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Mike Piazza

62.2 %

69.9 %

86.7 %

This will be Piazza's fourth year on the ballot. He did see a slight improvement (contrary to what I thought last year). He very nearly made it in last year. As this year's ballot is slightly less crowded I predict he'll make his trip to Cooperstown.

bWAR: 59.4; JAWS: 51.2; fWAR: 62.5

Jeff Bagwell [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Jeff Bagwell

54.3 %

55.7 %

88.5 %

There was very little movement on Bagwell's vote total, which is a shame because personally, I think he is more qualified than Piazza. There is a strong bloc of old school BBWAA members who refuse to vote for him based on some tenuous (at best) PED allegations. This will be Bagwell's sixth season on the ballot.

bWAR: 79.6; JAWS: 63.9; fWAR: 80.2

Tim Raines [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Tim Raines

46.1 %

55.0 %

75.4 %

Raines saw a decent improvement last year, but that final 20% will be the most difficult to attain, especially entering his final years on the ballot. Raines is a bit higher on my list than most. This will be Raines' ninth season on the ballot.

bWAR: 69.1; JAWS: 55.6; fWAR: 66.4

Curt Schilling [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Curt Schilling

29.2 %

39.2 %

55.1 %

Schilling's WAR/JAWS numbers are very impressive, but he rates very low on BBWAA as well as with LGT voters. He has a decent chance of moving up due to this year's lack of sure-fire candidates. This will be Schilling's fourth season on the ballot.

bWAR: 79.9; JAWS: 64.5; fWAR: 79.7

Roger Clemens [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Roger Clemens

35.4 %

37.5 %

67.2 %

Without the PEDs, Clemens is a no-doubter. But that old school bloc will likely keep him out until the former Veteran's committee vote. And even then he may have a tough crowd to convince. This will be Schilling's fourth season on the ballot.

bWAR: 140.3; JAWS: 103.3; fWAR: 133.7

Barry Bonds [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Barry Bonds

34.7 %

36.8 %

74.8 %

See Clemens above. His candidacy is mirrors Clemens to a T. He'd be the top choice on my ballot, PED or no PED. This will be Bonds' fourth season on the ballot.

bWAR: 162.4; JAWS: 117.6; fWAR: 164.4

Lee Smith [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Lee Smith

29.9 %

30.2 %

No vote taken

Smith will likely make it to his final vote next year, but the likelihood he makes it will rest with the former Veteran's Committee. I like him better than Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter, but I am not sure I could vote for either. This will be Smith's fourteenth season on the ballot.

bWAR: 29.6; JAWS: 25.4; fWAR: 26.6

Edgar Martinez [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Edgar Martinez

25.2 %

27.0 %

93.8 %

Martinez is the first true DH that should be in the Hall. But, I feel he won't get in until after David Ortiz makes it. Had Martinez had those numbers in New York, he'd already be in. He should be a relatively easy decision by the former Veteran's Committee. This will be Martinez's seventh season on the ballot. [I also believe the LGT vote last year was skewed by a voting contingency from Lookout Landing]

bWAR: 68.3; JAWS: 56.0; fWAR: 65.5

Alan Trammell [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Alan Trammell

20.8 %

25.1 %

75.9 %

Trammell should have been in years ago, but has not gained any traction with the voters. That is a shame, because he was a very good player for a long, long time. He would get my vote if I had one. This will be Trammell's fifteenth (and final) season on the ballot.

bWAR: 70.4; JAWS: 57.5; fWAR: 63.7

Mike Mussina [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Mike Mussina

20.3 %

24.6 %

75.9 %

Mussina is arguably a better candidate than Schilling. And even with his Yankee connection is near the bottom of the voting totals. If he makes a decent jump this year or next, he could make it. This will be Mussina's third season on the ballot.

bWAR: 83.0; JAWS: 63.8; fWAR: 82.2

Jeff Kent [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Jeff Kent

15.2 %

14.0 %

63.1 %

I really liked Kent's career, but he falls a bit short in my eyes.. This will be Kent's third season on the ballot.

bWAR: 55.2; JAWS: 45.4; fWAR: 56.1

Fred McGriff [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Fred McGriff

11.7 %

12.9 %

70.5 %

The Crime Dog should be higher up this list. But he probably would not make my list. This will be McGriff's seventh season on the ballot.

bWAR: 52.4; JAWS: 44.1; fWAR: 56.9

Larry Walker [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Larry Walker

10.2 %

11.8 %

61.5 %

Walker's numbers are somewhat skewed by his Colorado days, but he is a player who deserves a second closer look. I think he is borderline. This will be Walker's sixth season on the ballot.

bWAR: 72.6; JAWS: 58.6; fWAR: 68.7

Gary Sheffield [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Gary Sheffield

N/A

11.7 %

48.5 %

Sheffield's rate stats fare pretty well compared to a few others here but he wouldn't get a second look from me. This will be Shefffeld's second season on the ballot.

bWAR: 60.3; JAWS: 49.1; fWAR: 62.1

Mark McGwire [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Mark McGwire

11.0 %

10.0 %

52.6 %

His PED use killed any shot he had. Even then, his argument would have been tough as he was pretty one dimensional. This will be McGwire's tenth (and final?) season on the ballot.

bWAR: 62.0; JAWS: 51.9; fWAR: 66.3

Sammy Sosa [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Sammy Sosa

7.2 %

6.6 %

39.5 %

It is only fitting that Sosa is down here with his home run buddy McGwire. This will be Sosa's fourth season on the ballot.

bWAR: 58.4; JAWS: 51.0; fWAR: 60.1

Nomar Garciaparra [2014 LGT article]

2014 Vote

2015 Vote

2015 LGT Verdict

Nomar Garciaparra

N/A

5.5 %

26.7 %

How Garciaparra made it to second season of voting I'll never know. He and Sheffield were the only players to get a second crack at voting. Everyone else got elected or was removed from this year's ballot. This will be Garciaparra's second season on the ballot.

bWAR: 44.2; JAWS: 43.6; fWAR: 41.4

My take:

Without divulging anything on the upcoming profiles of first year players, here is how I'd rank the holdovers on my ballot if I had one:

Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Trammell, Piazza, Martinez, Walker, McGriff, Kent, McGwire, Sosa, Smith, Sheffield, Garciaparra.

What say the LGT faithful? Please discuss in the comments.