The Jake, another one of those HOK throw-back marvels of stadium construction that were what the smart set were wearing at the fin de siècle, debuted in 1994 as a statistically neutral ground: In its first decade, the median park effect number for batters was 100/101. For pitchers, it was 100/101. Then, in time for the 2004 season, the new Daktronics-built (and giant: 36' by 149') scoreboard was installed. Aeolus, that confused, tripartite Greek God of the winds, was not amused, apparently, and started swatting down baseballs that had previously sailed happily on to Souvenir City. The median batting park factor over the next eleven seasons was 96, and the pitching factor was 97.
The Prog, as it has been known since the 2008 season, underwent significant amendments to the upper deck in right field during the off-season, and in place of 7,000 or so empty seats one can see what looks to me like an homage to the stacks of cargo containers stored by Palmer Industries adjacent Newark Airport (and yes, those are the same containers that your hipster friends are buying to turn into hipster weekend homes in rural spots across the nation).
I thought nothing of it, beyond having another hipster referent to log in with all the others. However, I find that I need to think again, as the Prog's park effect number ballooned to 114 this season, making it the Home of the Happiest Hitters in baseball for 2015—well, except for Coors Field, of course, which remains, with its 117/118 park effect, unsurpassed as a hitter's heaven. It is the contradictory nature of Aeolus—whose genesis the Greeks kept fussing about: son of Hellen, or son of Poiseidon, or son of Hippotes? A mere, and mortal, keeper of the winds, or a fickle and inconstant God, whose favor one must curry? I vote God, of course—that single season weather and wind impacts can vary greatly. The 105 park effect of 2007 bloomed from a pair of 99s nestled fore and aft, for instance. We will have to bide our time before knowing whether 2015 is the new normal, or the most extreme of outliers.
In the meantime, one wonders. This season just concluded did not erase anyone's memories of Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez, nor perhaps even such lesser luminaries as Kurt Bevacqua and Matt Lawton. But did the park effects throw a veil of respectability over what was actually a bloody and dismembered Sorex cinereus that the cat dragged in?
First, let's look at the home/road splits of Cleveland's batters over the last ten years, with values expressed as +/- points (or runs) at home versus on the road. Where the split is greater at home, I'll bold it.
Year | BA | OBA | SA | OPS | ISO | BABIP | RUNS |
2006 | -1 | +5 | +2 | +8 | +3 | 0 | 0 |
2007 | +13 | +17 | +29 | +46 | +16 | +1 | +39 |
2008 | +18 | +32 | +29 | +62 | +11 | +13 | +47 |
2009 | -17 | -18 | -57 | -76 | -40 | -17 | -57 |
2010 | +1 | +7 | +11 | +20 | +10 | +3 | +6 |
2011 | +3 | +9 | +30 | +39 | +27 | -6 | -8 |
2012 | -3 | -3 | -9 | -12 | -6 | -1 | -21 |
2013 | -1 | -3 | +2 | -1 | +3 | 0 | -29 |
2014 | +5 | +6 | +9 | +16 | +4 | +1 | -23 |
2015 | +35 | +39 | +33 | +72 | -2 | +51 | +65 |
Across the board, 2015 reigns supreme here, but blips abound, and though it wasn't reflected in the BRef park effects number, 2008 was a twin to 2007 in batting results. After which came a cliff in 2009, and then a plateau, and then the volcanic extrusion of this past season. Does this all mean that we are in danger, though, of overvaluing our own lumberjacks, like the Fenway faithful have so often done, mistaking the ballpark itself for batting prowess? (Your honor, I introduce into evidence one James Edward Rice, he of the 920 Fenway OPS and 226 Fenway ISO and the 789 Road OPS and 182 Road ISO.) As a first attempt at an answer to this question, here are the career splits and 2015 splits for our best beloved. I'll bold those splits that are higher.
Player | Split | BA | OBA | SA | OPS | ISO | BABIP |
Kipnis | Career Home | .276 | .352 | .415 | .768 | .139 | .323 |
Kipnis | Career Away | .267 | .340 | .407 | .747 | .140 | .317 |
Kipnis | 2015 Home | .347 | .423 | .547 | .971 | .200 | .403 |
Kipnis | 2015 Away | .261 | .323 | .361 | .684 | .100 | .312 |
Brantley | Career Home | .299 | .352 | .438 | .790 | .139 | .316 |
Brantley | Career Away | .287 | .346 | .409 | .755 | .122 | .310 |
Brantley | 2015 Home | .316 | .394 | .516 | .909 | .200 | .326 |
Brantley | 2015 Away | .304 | .365 | .447 | .812 | .143 | .312 |
Santana | Career Home | .247 | .368 | .425 | .793 | .178 | .278 |
Santana | Career Away | .245 | .362 | .440 | .802 | .195 | .265 |
Santana | 2015 Home | .258 | .379 | .398 | .777 | .121 | .302 |
Santana | 2015 Away | .202 | .333 | .392 | .725 | .190 | .212 |
Gomes | Career at the Prog* | .268 | .309 | .452 | .761 | .184 | .318 |
Gomes | Career Away* | .257 | .295 | .430 | .725 | .173 | .308 |
Gomes | 2015 Home | .266 | .294 | .428 | .722 | .162 | .333 |
Gomes | 2015 Away | .200 | .243 | .358 | .600 | .158 | .238 |
Chisenhall | Career Home | .264 | .320 | .412 | .733 | .148 | .310 |
Chisenhall | Career Away | .250 | .292 | .402 | .694 | .152 | .281 |
Chisenhall | 2015 Home | .245 | .295 | .362 | .657 | .117 | .294 |
Chisenhall | 2015 Away | .247 | .293 | .382 | .676 | .135 | .284 |
Raburn | Career at the Prog* | .266 | .334 | .433 | .767 | .167 | .326 |
Raburn | Career Away* | .267 | .329 | .458 | .787 | .191 | .329 |
Raburn | 2015 Home | .330 | .396 | .500 | .896 | .170 | .414 |
Raburn | 2015 Away | .266 | .389 | .595 | .984 | .329 | .288 |
Almonte | Career at the Prog* | .323 | .352 | .535 | .888 | .212 | .354 |
Almonte | Career Away* | .228 | .285 | .346 | .631 | .118 | .292 |
Almonte | 2015 Home | .323 | .352 | .535 | .888 | .212 | .351 |
Almonte | 2015 Away | .190 | .286 | .354 | .640 | .164 | .238 |
C. Johnson | Career Home* | .280 | .319 | .404 | .723 | .124 | .357 |
C. Johnson | Career Away* | .280 | .313 | .419 | .731 | .139 | .357 |
C. Johnson | 2015 Home | .388 | .423 | .510 | .933 | .122 | .380 |
C. Johnson | 2015 Away | .171 | .171 | .195 | .366 | .024 | .330 |
Ramirez | Career Home | .236 | .283 | .325 | .608 | .089 | .271 |
Ramirez | Career Away | .243 | .312 | .366 | .679 | .123 | .254 |
Ramirez | 2015 Home | .209 | .273 | .297 | .571 | .088 | .326 |
Ramirez | 2015 Away | .228 | .307 | .377 | .684 | .149 | .312 |
Perez | 2015 Home | .253 | .381 | .462 | .842 | .209 | .316 |
Perez | 2015 Away | .204 | .315 | .344 | .659 | .140 | .310 |
Lindor | 2015 Home | .325 | .366 | .505 | .871 | .180 | .316 |
Lindor | 2015 Away | .301 | .340 | .459 | .799 | .158 | .310 |
Urshela | 2015 Home | .245 | .300 | .367 | .667 | .122 | .326 |
Urshela | 2015 Away | .203 | .255 | .289 | .545 | .086 | .312 |
*Gomes' career away totals include his 2012 road stats, but exclude the 59 PAs he had at the Rogers Centre. Raburn's career away totals exclude his Comerica stats as a Tiger and include his Progressive Field stats as a Tiger. Almonte's career away stats include his Progressive Field stats as a Mariner and exclude his Safeco stats as a Mariner. Chris Johnson had never played at Cleveland until he came to the Indians in mid-season.
Your analysis is as good, or probably better, than mine, but since I have the floor, I'll say that one might—might, I say, especially considering all the SSS splayed about—conclude the following:
Kipnis is not that MVP-contender we thought we saw in the first half; he may be much closer to being an average hitter than a superlative one.
Brantley is just marvelous, thank you.
Santana might be doing the old '29 and decline' thing.
Gomes was too ouchy last year.
The jury is still out on Urshela, Perez, and Jose Ramirez.
One can be dubious of Almonte and Chris Johnson.
Renovations? Lonnie didn't notice.
Raburn has some pop going for him.
Lindor: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥.