Cleveland Indians 2015 pitching staff ranked second in Deserved Run Average

Back in late-April, when Deserved Run Average (DRA) was first revealed, I did a quick rundown of how the new metric rated Cleveland Indians starting pitchers to that point. Now with the 2015 season finished, Baseball Prospectus has released team DRA year-end results, and it indicates what we all already knew--Indians pitching was awesome.

In its most simplistic form, DRA’s purpose is to take out as many variables as possible in determining for how many runs a pitcher "deserved" to be penalized. The example I gave before is if Trevor Bauer left two runners on base then Scott Atchison (ha!) gave up a home run, Bauer should not be penalized for the runners advancing home. The only thing that Bauer could actually control in this scenario was giving up the baserunners, not the fact that Atchison gave up a home run while he was on his way to the showers.

Predictably, when you take out the shoddy defense and other factors, the Indians pitching staff scored out great by this metric. They finished first in the American League and second in the Majors to only the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 3.88 DRA (which is scaled runs earned per nine innings, not earned run average).

One interesting factor that helped the Indians in these rankings in relation to their ERA is a low percentage of runners they left on base. Because DRA only cares about individual events that a pitcher allows to happen, it does not reward a pitcher for allowing a bunch of hits then getting the third out in an inning like ERA does.

Taking a look at the Top 10 teams by DRA, the highest LOB% that makes the cut is the Tampa Bay Rays at 75.1%. Here is how each team ranks, as well as their ERA and ERA ranking among all MLB teams:

A high LOB% combined with a low ERA is a quick-and-dirty (albeit imperfect) way of saying a pitcher was "lucky" in a season. Just think about it; if a pitcher keeps loading up the bases and getting the final out when he needs it, he is only a few bad pitches away from having a dramatically different ERA. You could say that some pitchers have the "skill" of getting outs when it’s really needed, but in the end don’t you want the pitcher that prevents runners from getting on base in the first place?

It partially explains why the Cardinals, despite leading the league with a 2.94 ERA, are not even in the Top 10 in DRA; because they also lead the Majors in LOB% (79.4%).

The Indians finished 2015 ranked 8th in ERA (3.68), but second in DRA thanks in part to being in the bottom half of teams that stranded runners on the base paths. This staff was not getting into trouble often then bailing themselves out, they were flat out great from start to finish, on average.