2013 in Review: Minors
Levels: DSL Indians (R-) • AZL Indians (R-) • Mahoning Valley (SSA) • Lake County (A-) • Carolina (A+) • Akron (AA) • Columbus (AAA)
Players: SS Francisco Lindor • C Tony Wolters • RHP Mitch Brown • SS Dorssys Paulino • OF Tyler Naquin • 2B/SS Ronny Rodriguez • OF Luigi Rodriguez • OF LeVon Washington • RHP Cody Anderson • OF Clint Frazier • RHP Trevor Bauer
2013 Mid-season Prospects That Matter
2013 Pre-season Prospects That Matter
2014 Preview: Minors
Part I: Resources (other lists)
Part II: 2013 PTM Review
Part III: A quantitative prospect comparison (position players)
Part IV: Testing the new PTM formula
Prospects That Matter
Part I: Position Players
Part II: Starting Pitchers
Last time we covered the starting pitchers in the organization, and this time we'll look at the relievers.
For those who missed it, here's the PTM formula for pitchers:
NetOBP = (LN(OppOBP)-LN(LgAvgOppOBP))*1.8
NetSLG = LN(OppSLG)-LN(LgAvgOppSLG)
NetSORate = (LN(SORate)-LN(LgAvgSORate))/4
AgeMod = Age-LgAvgAge*Mod (see here for the modification details)
PosMod: Starting Pitchers have no modification, while Relief Pitchers have a -.600 modification to their score to account for the innings differences. For instance, the typical reliever throws 50-60 innings in a season, while a typical starter throws 180-200 innings. Leaving leverage aside, a starter is going to be more valuable to a club than a reliever.
As you can see, a relievers gets a rather sizable penalty, and while that may seem harsh, I think it reflects the future value of a starter and a reliever. Only a very few relievers in the game top 3.0 Wins Above Replacement (Craig Kimbrel, for instance), while a good starter can easily reach that mark because the amount of innings he's on the mound. Yes, good closers can earn in some cases as much as a good starter (witness Kimbrel's recent extension), but I don't think dollars is equal to value in this case. If you're on a limited budget, I think you'd much rather pay a good starting pitcher $10M to pitch 200 innings than a great reliever to pitch 60.
On to the rankings:
(click to embiggen)
(download complete file - Excel)
The 2014 PTMs:
Prospects That Really, Really Matter:
Prospects That Really Matter:
- Preston Guilmet
Prospects That Matter:
- Bryan Price
- C.C. Lee
- Enosil Tejeda, who just missed the cut at .249
- I included Nick Hagadone in here, even though he no longer has rookie eligibility, because he pitched more in Columbus than in Cleveland.
- If there was one number I wish I could manually fix, it was Austin Adams, who ended up at -.378. In 2013 he was coming back from shoulder surgery, and remained in Akron the entire season. That triggered a considerable age penalty (he was over two years older than the Eastern League average). Walks also hurt him, as walked 4.75 per 9 innings, which translated into a .316 OBP, almost .100 of which is due to the free passes.
Next Up: Recap
- Indians reliever Matt Capps injures shoulder
- Baseball America Top 100 includes three Indians prospects
- Winter League results for Indians players
- Bourn Healthy & Getting the Best Price on Tickets: Indians News & Links 2/20/14
- Lonnie Chisenhall might still become a very good third baseman for the Indians