Here we are, finally, at the destination we were hoping we'd live long enough to reach: a Two O' Cat look at the 2015 Hall of Fame Ballot, Starting Pitcher Edition. Without stopping to add to the Denali-sized pile of registered opinions anent the personal virtues and vices of the candidates, here are the numbers:
The Ballot | Career Span | Times on Ballot | Peak Vote | Points | Years | Stars | 5 Star | 4 Star | 3 Star | 2 Star | 1 Star | #1 | Career |
Roger Clemens | 1984-2007 | 2 | 37.6% | 1833 | 14 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 1112 |
Randy Johnson | 1988-2009 | 0 | 1587 | 11 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 1067 | |
Pedro Martinez | 1992-2009 | 0 | 1193 | 10 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 54 | 965 | |
Mike Mussina | 1991-2008 | 1 | 20.3% | 1133 | 12 | 38 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 717 |
Curt Schilling | 1988-2007 | 2 | 38.8% | 1030 | 11 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 678 |
BBWAA MEDIAN | 3 | 83.7% | 935 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 653 | |
John Smoltz | 1988-2009 | 0 | 890 | 10 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 606 | |
VETERANS MEDIAN | 7 | 27.7% | 487 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 293 | |
Jason Schmidt | 1995-2009 | 0 | 298 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 51 | |
Tom Gordon | 1988-2009 | 0 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 120 |
The history of the Hall offers a single conclusion: there are six indisputable Hall of Famers here. (I should note that I gave Smoltz some points for Saves and Games Finished in those few years when Wins and Starts were not a part of his role.) Presumably it is random and cyclical, but the number of dominant pitchers whose career midpoint fell in the latter half of the 1990s far outstripped the number from a decade earlier. It's been a terrific time to be watching baseball, if you think about it.
Personally, I'd start my list with Clemens, but feel free to drop him behind Johnson and Pedro if you only want to acknowledge the 1138 points, 9 years and 38 stars he accumulated before meeting the syringe-clutching, cloven-hoofed McMephistopheles of Toronto. I will only note that the Hall's famous character clause ("Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played") does not suggest that prospective inductees need to have a code of ethical standards in any way elevated above the standards of the Hall's current inhabitants.
More important, I think, is the fact that the Hall is bleeding money, something like $2 million per year on revenues of something like $9 million. Attendance and revenues are not isolated from the events of baseball and the outside world; the peak attendance, over 400,000, declined annually after the 1994 strike and only recovered after the McGwire-Sosa home run race of 1998, and the current malaise is a direct consequence of the 2008 financial collapse. The continuing mudslinging associated with each new Hall of Fame candidate class doesn't help.
At the end of the BBWAA's list of rules for enshrinement comes this:
9. Amendments: The Board of Directors of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. reserves the right to revoke, alter or amend these rules at any time.
We tend to forget the fact that, though baseball itself belongs to anybody who can grab a glove, a bat, a ball, a bunch of friends and a corner of a cow pasture, the Hall of Fame belongs to Jane Forbes Clark and her fellow directors. Despite being as far removed from her world as is possible, I expect that a sense of self-preservation, common to us all, will steer her through the shallows, and I wish her Godspeed.
Finally, let me again acknowledge the wonder and genius of Baseball Reference. All credit goes to them. The mistakes herein, of course, are my own dear offspring and I cradle them to my bosom.