"If we try to play like the Yankees in here, we will lose to the Yankees out there."

-Moneyball

Greed is Good: Most everyone who follows baseball is aware of the divergent strategies of the "big-market" teams and the "small-market teams." Those teams with a seemingly endless influx of cash have little trouble filling not only a competent lineup every year, but a competitive one. They are usually willing to go the extra dollar or year of the contract to lock in the hottest Free Agent. Their 25-man active roster is often crowded so they can deal prospects with barely a second thought. Or maybe God's a Yankee fan. It's often said the Almighty hates Cleveland. Like it or not, Cleveland has been relegated to the role of "small-market" club under the reign of Shaprio, ten plagues not withstanding.

The Color of Money: How do small-market teams compete with the teams with Monopoly Money? One of the prevailing theories among fans is that these teams have to be better at drafting than not only the big boys but other small-market teams. As such, I set out to take an objective look at whether Mark Shapiro's tenure as GM of the Tribe was a success or not, in terms of his drafts. If his drafts were successful, perhaps the reasons for the Indians woes would be found elsewhere (injuries to long-term contracts comes to mind). If it was not a success, just how badly did he do compared to other small market clubs?

Good Will Hunting: For this study, I looked at each draft for the following teams during Shapiro's position as GM (2001-2010): Reds, Royals. Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays. I couldn't find reliable data on what constitutes "small market," so I amended a ranking I found on the Internet (because it's always right). I ranked each team in four categories: % of players drafted who see the bigs, WAR, Service Time, and Awards. For service time, I counted only those players who made a worthwhile contribution to a major league club. For position players, it was 100 games; for starting pitchers, it was 24 starts; and for relievers, it was 55 appearances. For Awards, I tallied the draftees' Gold Glove seasons, All-Star Appearances, Cy Youngs, MVPS, and ROYs. I then ranked each team in these four categories, roto style. There was some cross over due to players not signing and being redrafted by either the same team or a different team. The only player who really carried any weight in this was Andre Ethier (due to his double digit WAR and All-Star appearances). Just trust me that by the time you see who the winner is, it won't matter.

I Don't Know What I Expected: Out of these eleven teams, four emerged as clear winners. Unsurprisingly, Oakland and Tampa Bay were first and second, respectively. Oakland, in fact, ranked highest in every category except Service Time, where it came in second. It lead all teams with 14.23% of drafted players seeing the bigs, 182.1 WAR drafted, and 19 award seasons (by far the most All-Stars with 14 and Rookie of the Years with 3). Tampa Bay was second in Awards with 15 seasons, first in Service time with 40 players meeting the arbitrary criteria, and third in Major percentage (11.53%) and WAR (158.5). Milwaukee and Minnesota were third and fourth. Milwaukee got big boosts from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but since 2005, they have had abysmal drafts. The Twins owe a lot to Joe Mauer, as he has garnered all their award seasons. Finally, it was an interesting to note that Tampa Bay has drafted twenty players who have made at least 24 starts in the Majors, twice that of the next highest team (Cleveland).

Not So Hot In Cleveland: So where did Cleveland end up in this ranking? 9th of 11th. Slightly behind the Marlins and barely ahead of Seattle (KC was last). Shaprio's drafts produced only 8.79% of players to make The Show, had a respectable WAR drafted of 93.4, but only 23 players with meaningful service time. Finally, Cleveland drafted six award worthy seasons. On average, 10.2% percent of players drafted played in a major league game, and of the 500 players typically drafted, 27 would give you a good run of games played in.

Tim Lincecum and the Flaw in the Method: However, there is a statistical outlier that needs to be addressed. Included in Cleveland's draft is Tim Lincecum, who accounts for all the award seasons and a good chunk of WAR. As he didn't sign and re-entered the next year, if you disregard his contribution, Cleveland's slightly bad drafts become a whole lot worse. They would be the only team with exactly zero Awards seasons drafted. Not one All-Star, no Gold Gloves. Nada. Zero. Zip. Their WAR would drop by 23.9 putting them at 69.9 (in front of only Seattle at 68.2 and Miami at 59.5). As a result, their final standing would put them in dead last.

Episode 7: A New New Hope: Consequently, it would appear that yes, Shapiro's draft have been a failure. That he has managed to execute a large number of trades to produce a team one win away from a World Series berth, as well as one dropped fly ball from the playoffs speaks to his overall acumen, but we wanted to evaluate drafts, not trades or overall strategy. But look not on these drafts, ye mighty, and despair! For hope remains. Along with the other arbitrary parameters mentioned, the last one in Pandora's Box of wasting time on a Thursday is the length of time it takes to evaluate a draft. It takes between 5-7 years to properly gauge how successful or disastrous a draft was. That means, that the final verdict on Shaprio will be stayed until 2017. The Players drafted from 2007 to 2010 still have time to make a significant impact and make those drafts a success. Who are some of those players (A full list of players who got a cup of coffee is below)? T.J. McFarland (on the Orioles 25 man and looks promising), Lonnie Chisenhall, Cord Phelps, Jason Kipnis, Drew Pomeranz, Cody Allen, Trey Haley, Tim Fedroff, Matt Langwell, Carlos Moncrief, T.J. House, Preston Guilmet, LeVon Washington, and Tyler Holt. If one of these players turns into the next Grienke, Cleveland's draft success will rank in the top half of the teams surveyed. If Kipnis and Chisenhall become the All-Star infield players they are projected to be, Shaprio's drafts will have been slightly better than average. If Chris Archer (traded for Mark DeRosa) becomes the next great Tampa Bay pitcher, well, I think I might throw up. For now, it's correct to say Shapiro's drafts were poor. In three years, we might be eating our words.

Edit: Inexcusable spelling, grammar errors.

Raw data dump:

Here is the aggregate data for each team, I included any specific players above 6.5 WAR (because that number sounds good to me).

CIN:

CLE:

KC:

MIA:

MIL:

MIN:

OAK:

PIT:

SD:

SEA:

TB: