clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2013 in Review: Expected Wins vs Expected Losses

New, 44 comments

A few weeks back, YoDaddyWags introduced the expected win vs. the expected loss based on Gamescores when evaluating potential Hall of Fame candidates. I was intrigued by the concept and curious how it applied to the 2013 season.

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

During the 2013 season, the Indians had nine different pitchers start a game. First off, I am going tabulate how each did with wins, no decisions and losses in just their starts. Any wins and losses from relief appearances have not been added in.

Starts

Wins

NDs

Losses

Ubaldo Jimenez

32

13

10

9

Justin Masterson

29

14

5

10

Scott Kazmir

29

10

10

9

Corey Kluber

24

10

9

5

Zach McAllister

24

9

6

9

Danny Salazar

10

2

5

3

Carlos Carrasco

7

0

3

4

Trevor Bauer

4

1

1

2

Brett Myers

3

0

0

3

Total

162

59

49

54

I found it intriguing that the dispersal of wins, no decisions and losses was pretty equal overall for the team and for most everyone except Masterson and maybe Kluber, not counting the bottom trio, who each pitched so few times. Salazar had quite a few no decisions, but that is due to his strict pitch count and removal early in many games.

Now let's use the expected-win Game Score table that's been mentioned here before. As a reminder, if a pitcher's Game Score is 55 or better, the pitcher has an expected win, 45 or less is an expected loss. From 46 to 54 is kind of a no man's land, so I'll equate it to a no decision. [Please read here for what a Game Score is]

Starts

Exp. Wins

Neither

Exp. Losses

Ubaldo Jimenez

32

20

4

8

Justin Masterson

29

17

4

8

Scott Kazmir

29

14

4

11

Corey Kluber

24

10

7

7

Zach McAllister

24

11

6

7

Danny Salazar

10

7

3

0

Carlos Carrasco

7

1

0

6

Trevor Bauer

4

1

2

1

Brett Myers

3

1

0

2

Total

162

82

30

50

Ubaldo definitely looks better under this light, Masterson looks about the same. Kazmir looks better and worse at the same time, McAllister looks better and Kluber holds fairly steady. Salazar looks fantastic, without a single expected loss, while Carrasco looks even worse than he did before. Overall as a team, you can see that the Tribe should have done much better. If we just split the neithers, the overall record becomes 97-65. To me, the bullpen and the hitting let down the starters quite a bit as the netted a negative 23 to the expected win level.

Just to compare, let's see how the Tigers fared in this circumstance as well. Their starters (only six total for the whole season!) were 76-44 with 42 no decisions. Using the same GameScore method, they would have been 97-43 with just 22 neithers. As that shows, their bullpen and/or hitting also let them down as they were a negative 21. However to expect to reach that level (97) in 2014 is probably unrealistic.

In fact, let's do a summary of the differences:

Starts

Exp. Wins

Neither

Exp. Losses

Ubaldo Jimenez

32

-7

+6

+1

Justin Masterson

29

-3

+1

+2

Scott Kazmir

29

-4

+6

-2

Corey Kluber

24

0

+2

-2

Zach McAllister

24

-2

0

+2

Danny Salazar

10

-5

+2

+3

Carlos Carrasco

7

-1

+3

-2

Trevor Bauer

4

0

-1

+1

Brett Myers

3

-1

0

0

Total

162

-23

+19

+4

Obviously not every great start will result in a win. The opposing pitcher could be better that day. And the bullpen is going to blow a few leads of course. But all in all, it should finish relatively close to even, kind of like Pythag. Hopefully this is a one year blip.

I'll follow-up with a review of the different season numbers to see how close even truly is, and next up, I'll review the top starters over the past 45 seasons (since the divisional set-up in 1969).

.