2012 in Review: Zach McAllister

2012 Age: 24

2012 WAR (Fangraphs): 1.3 (Role Player)

2012 WAR (B-Ref): -.5 (Replacement Level)

2012 Salary: ~$480K (minimum)

2013 Contract Status: Renewable Contract (<1 Year Service Time)

Let's break down the B-Ref version of WAR first. Because Baseball-Reference's version uses Runs Allowed and Innings Pitched as the basis for its calculation, it's no wonder why McAllister looks horrible. Zach allowed 19 unearned runs in his 125.1 innings pitched, which made his RA (Runs Allowed) 5.60, almost a run and a half higher than his ERA (4.24). Why include unearned runs in the WAR calculation? Because the statistic is measuring the value of a player's performance to his team, you need to include unearned runs because although the pitcher may not be entirely responsible for those unearned runs, those runs nevertheless scored, hampering his team's ability to win the game. Since this value compares a pitcher with the average league starter, some unearned runs isn't going to hurt him, since all pitchers are going to give up some unearned runs. But because McAllister's unearned run rate is well outside the league norms, it hurt him here.

The Fangraphs version is a bit more kind to McAllister, since that version of WAR is based on FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), not just plain RA, but still, this version also came up with a value below a starter level.

A large chunk of the unearned runs McAllister gave up came in one game in August. In that game (on August 6th against Minnesota), one run scored on the error itself, and McAllister would allow 6 more runs to score after the error (three coming on runs allowed after he left. So although Zach's day ended with just 2 earned runs, there were 9 runs on the scoreboard the Indians had to deal with. The good news is that McAllister allowed just 1 unearned run after that, and that run scored on the same play that the error was made, and Zach struck out a batter to end the inning with no further runs scored.

But given that the season's over with now, what should we expect from McAllister in 2013 and beyond? Even though the overall results weren't that good, there are several promising signs of future improvement. McAllister managed a 7.9 SO/9 rate, a very nice rate for a starting pitcher, and at the same time kept his walks down (2.7/9). He was fairly efficient with his pitches, averaging 5.2 innings per start, even with some meltdowns included. His stuff looks like it can be effective against major-league hitters, and he's been a durable pitcher, throwing 150 innings each of the past three seasons, with a total of 188.2 innings thrown between Columbus and Cleveland this season. He's been very effective against left-handed hitters thanks to a changeup/slider combination used against them when ahead in the count:

(via Brooks Baseball)

BASELINE All Counts
HIGH USE 10% Above Baseline
LOW USE 10% Below Baseline

I think the Indians have yet again come up with a nice player thanks to a relatively minor trade (Austin Kearns, 2010). Now if only they could actually draft these kinds of players...

2012 Game Log

Career Stats (Minors and Majors)