2011 in Review: Fausto Carmona

Age 27 Season

2011 Salary: $6.1M

Service Time (est): 4.125

2012 Contract Status: Team Option ($7M)*

Options Remaining: 0

How Acquired: Non-Drafted Free Agent, 12-28-2000

If Opening Day was tomorrow: In the rotation (#4 or #5 starter).

*If option is exercised, 2013 ($9M) and 2014 ($12M) Team Options are available.

Repetroire (via Fangraphs)

*Fausto throws both a four-seam and two-seam fastball, but both pitches are included in the same category.

2011 Transactions/Injuries

7-3-2011: Placed on 15-Day Disabled List (strained right quad)

7-18-2011: Reinstated from 15-Day Disabled List

Before I get into Carmona's season, a quick note on his contract. If the Indians decline the 2012 Team Option, Carmona would not automatically become a free agent, as Grady Sizemore would if the Indians decline the option on his contract. Fausto, believe it or not, only has a bit over four years of service time, so he would still be under the team's control. Doing that, though, would not likely save the Indians a lot of money, as the option would only raise his salary $900K from this year; going through the arbitration process would result in a contract pretty close to the option salary. Also, if Carmona does turn things around (I know, I know), the Indians would lose the opportunity of controlling him a year beyond free agent eligibility (2014). If the Indians are going to keep him, they might as well pick up the option.

Now for the performance. Carmona had some flashes of effectiveness, but also had some just plain awful stretches. One of the many awesome statistics found at Baseball-Reference is Game Score, which is a way of grading a start. Developed by Bill James, it starts with a score of 50 and adds or subtracts from that number depending on the good and bad things the pitcher did in the start. A Game Score of 50 would be equivalent to a Quality Start with a bunch of hits and walks, and a Game Score of 75 or greater represents a great start. Justin Verlander, for example, earned a Game Score of 40 or more in each one of his 34 starts this season, and had 13 starts with Game Scores greater than 70.

How did Fausto do? Here's a quick rundown:

In other words, in 18 of Carmona's starts, he either gave up a lot of runs or didn't go very far into the game. In the former case, that meant the Indians had to outslug the opposition to win, something that was difficult to do with this year's club. In the latter case, that meant the bullpen needed to pitch at least 3 or 4 innings to keep the team in the game. Sometimes, his start removed any chance of winning, as was the case in his 7 starts with a Game Score of 30 or less. That's a lot of automatic losses.

So what does this portend for Fausto in 2012? I have no idea. His strikeout and walk rates were about the same in 2011 as 2010, when he was a perfectly good innings eater. He gave 22 home runs in 188.2 innings, a very high amount for a putative ground ball pitcher. I think his pitching mechanics are just difficult to maintain, and once they get out of whack, it takes a lot of effort to fix them.

If Carlos Carrasco were healthy, the Indians may have contemplated turning Carmona loose, but with the Indians needing innings in the rotation, I think they almost have to keep Fausto at $7M, especially with the option of controlling him for two seasons after that. Any decent starter on the free agent market is going to get $10M a season for 3 or 4 years, and while I think they'll look anyway, they need Carmona as at least a backup option. If they happen to land a free agent, they could probably still trade Carmona if they had to.