Top Prospects, part 6: Carlos Santana and recap

In his six seasons with Cleveland, Casey Blake provided a tremendous amount of value as a minor league free agent.  820+ games, five different defensive positions (some better than others), more than 800 hits and an OPS+ of 108.  According to FanGraphs data he produced something just north of 12 wins above replacement and something like $29 million dollars in excess value (estimated value-salary).  He was a great pickup for a team decidedly lacking talent in the 2002 off-season.

And yet I think there is good reason to be optimistic that Carlos Santana, who the Indians acquired from the Dodgers when Blake was traded in late July, 2008, is going to provide Cleveland with a lot more value.  Santana started off in the Dodgers system bouncing between the infield and the outfield.  In 2007 they began transitioning Santana to catcher, a process that saw Santana struggle to a .688 OPS.  He got off to a hot start in 2008, slugging .993 OPS in the California League (high-A) with Inland Empire.  I have no idea how the Dodgers organization viewed him, but Cleveland clearly made a wise choice in asking for him in the Blake trade.  Santana showed that his offensive numbers weren't a product of the California League's offensive environment by improving his season line in Kinston with a late-season OPS over 1.000.  All in all, 2008 was a tremendously impressive season for the newly converted catcher.

But there were still questions about Santana coming into 2009.  Was 2008 an offensive fluke?  Could he really stick at catcher?  Would he adjust to upper level pitching?  All signs point to yes.  Santana set career highs in HRs, BBs and had more walks than strikeouts.  He has thrown out more than 30% of the runners who have attempted to run on him since joining the Indians organization.  There are still questions about how he handles a pitching staff (there was a great article a while back from THT showing how CC Sabathia pitched differently with Jose Molina and Jorge Posada), but Akron's pitching staff was basically dominating in 2009 - with Santana behind the plate.

Santana should be in Cleveland sometime in 2010.  And hopefully for many years to come.

Another perspective (age, level, OPS):

• Player A: age 21 (A/A+) - .822, age 22 (A+) - .882, age 23 (AA) - .993
• Player B: age 20 (Rk/A+) - .815, age 21 (A) - .688, age 22 (A+/AA) - .999, age 23 (AA), .943

Player A is Victor Martinez, Player B is Santana...

A recap of this series below the fold:

The Series:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Part 4:

Part 5.0: The

Part 5.5: The

Pitching prospects ranked on 2009 Progress Score (2009 draftees excluded):

1. 9.35 - H. Rondon
2. 8.69 - C. Carrasco
3. 7.67 - J. Todd
4. 7.51 - J. Gomez
5. 6.67 - A. Perez
6. 5.36 - J. Knapp**
7. 5.25 - T.J. House
8. 5.17 - F. Jimenez
9. 4.93 - J. Judy
10. 4.87 - S. Barnes
11. 4.82 - Z. Putnam
12. 4.17 - P. Espino
13. 4.06 - J. Tomlin
14. 4.01 - B. Price
15. 3.86 - M. Talbot
16. 3.82 - Y. Pino
17. 3.74 - E. Berger
18. 3.46 - C. Cook
19. 3.30 - M. Popham
20. 3.03 - R. Edell
21. 2.94 - B. Grening
22. 2.76 - N. Hagadone**
23. 2.60 - C.C. Lee
24. 2.55 - C. Graham
25. 2.15 - C. Jones
26. 1.72 - F. Herrmann
27. 1.63 - S. Wright
28. 1.58 - C. Smith
29. 1.45 - K. Landis
30. 0.23 - N. Wagner
31. 0.16 - K. De La Cruz** (5.96 in '08)
32. -0.04 - R. Morris
33. -0.76 - S. Frias**
34. -1.47 - J. Mahalic** (4.85 in '08)

Hitting prospects ranked on 2009 Progress Score (2009 draftees included)

1. 10.93 - C. Santana
2. 9.08 - M. Brantley
3. 7.78 - N. Weglarz
4. 7.65 - L. Marson
5. 7.52 - L. Chisenhall
6. 7.40 - M. LaPorta
7. 7.22 - C. Rivero
8. 6.17 - W. Toregas
9. 5.57 - J. Brown
10. 5.38 - J. Drennen
11. 5.15 - A. Abreu
12. 4.82 - A. Abraham
13. 4.62 - W. Hodges
14. 4.48 - M. McBride
15. 4.33 - C. Phelps
16. 3.98 - J. Donald** (5.93 in '08)
17. 3.97 - N. Romero
18. 3.82 - B. Mills (5.55 in '08)
19. 3.43 - N. Recknagel
20. 3.27 - J. Rodriguez
21. 3.00 - R. Rivas
22. 2.75 - T. Fedroff
23. 1.58 - J. Constanza
24. 1.55 - D. Webb

The Indians have a very deep system.  They have a few very high ceiling guys near the majors (Santana, Brantley, LaPorta, Weglarz, Rondon, Carrasco....), they have a few potential high ceiling guys a little further back (Chisenhall, Knapp, Hagadone, Perez), but more than anything they have depth.  They have a huge number of guys who are good enough to potentially provide a surprise.  Most of them won't.  Most of them will make a marginal contribution to Cleveland if they make one at all.  But not all of the impact players in MLB were viewed as impact prospects in the course of their development.  If player development is about quality and quantity, the Indians appear at the moment (everyone except Adam Miller cross your fingers) to be well positioned for the near and mid-term future.