Win Probability Added @ Fangraphs
Josh Barfield .468
Jason Michaels .361
Jhonny Peralta .271
Tom Mastny -.369
Fausto Carmona -.186
Ryan Garko -.109
This game was essentially a race to the bottom by the two bullpens, and Detroit's relievers won. Todd Jones' WPA was -1.014. How could his WPA be more than 100%? He allowed two runs in the eighth inning, but since the Tigers scored two in the top of the ninth, the Tigers' Win Probability was now higher in the ninth than when Jones entered the game.
When Casey Blake came to the plate with one out in the ninth, the Indians' chances of winning the game was 0.8%. When Victor Martinez stepped to the plate, the chances were 4.7%. Even after Victor's three-run home run, the chances were just 12.3%. That gives you a good idea as to how many things had to go right (or wrong, depending on your perspective) for the Indians to score five runs with one out in the ninth.
After going the first four games of the season series without giving up a run, the Indians' relievers coughed up 6 runs in three innings. Tom Mastny was awful, giving up four runs and getting just one out. And Fernando Cabrera continued down his downward spiral, walking another three batters and allowing two more runs. So while the ending of yesterday's game evoked memories of 1995, the bullpen sure didn't. It's something that's going to have to be fixed very soon.
The lead is now 4.5 games, and the Indians have gained five games on the Tigers in just a week.
Next Up: Chad Durbin vs. Cliff Lee, 7:05 PM. I smell another shootout.