I made the mistake of making an off hand comment in a thread about the Tribe's Chief Wahoo about the Tribe's future in Cleveland that upset a few people. Among the personal characterizations and challenges to my knowledge was a lone voice who actually seemed to want to understand. No, it was not you, Jay. Some of what I say will seem arrogant and condescending. I apologize in advance. I like to believe it goes with the territory but it could be that I am a pompous ass. Some of the things I say will upset people since this includes some comment on socio-politico-religious arenas. My first arrogant, condescending remark is that I don't care. I deal with how certain facts fit ino economic modeling.
My qualifications in brief form. I have an MBA and a Masters in Economics. My Phd was interupted 6 hours short of completion by the need of the US to have me defend the country from the onslaught of commie SE Asians. I specialize in an area of economics called "microstatics". Macroeconics studies how economic variables effect a country. Microeconomics is the effect on individual entities. My doctoral thesis was on the effect of cyclical fluctuatons and socioeconomic variables on business entities. It was well received. I have taught, lectured, consulted to a wide variety of governmental and business entities including the Federal Reserve. After saving our country, I did not want to continue down this path so I moved to the private sector. This eventually led me to start my own business applying these principals to the buying, developing and selling of businesses. That made me a wealthy man. A combination of 9/11 and a genetic blood condition led to retirement.
How does all this cause me to believe the Indians' are a likely candidate for relocation. First, Cleveland and the rest of Ohio are football country just like Montreal and Quebec are hockey country. In a financial squeeze, football support trumps baseball. Second, northern Ohio is in serious economic decline which is likely to worsen for the foreseeable future. Why? Now I offend people. Politically, you are stupid and uninformed. Ohio voted for Bush twice. Obviously, people did not comprehend the fact that Bush was dedicated to hastening the economic decline of Ohio citizens. That, and this comes from a guy who lived a few miles from "the Duke" before they sent his corrupt ass to prison, and an incredible ability to pick the most corrupt and inept politicians as your representatives. The people with money to invest view Ohio as "hee-haw country". A few years ago, Ohio was gung-ho to be the second state, along with Kansas, to endorse the teaching of Intelligent Design to its students. In a world where the industrial revolution is over and the technological revolution is well under way, this is economic suicide.
I could go on and on about how these, and many more, mirostatistical occurrences adversely effect the future of the entity known as the Cleveland Indians. The key is to recognize how the confluence of adverse indicators effect the ongoing forecast for the future of the Cleveland Indians. Population density and economic trending favor most locations over Cleveland. I have heard how bright the future is for the Tribe over the Twinkies and the A's. Reality check, folks. They are building new stadiums. Their attendance revenues are much higher. The economic futures of their fan base is far more assured. Like it or not, Pittsburgh has the Heinz foundation and Florida has economic growth but many negative factors.
The entity viability test is not promising. History is completely adverse. The only time the Tribe has had reasonable attendance revenues is a statistical anomaly. Cleveland had a new stadium and it was hip to go to Indians' games, particularly since there was no football team. The more accurate view is before and after this period. Ugh! If there is one thing franchise history shows, it is that Cleveland will only support a Tribe winner.
Can anything be done to prevent the microstatistical decline of the Indians? Yes, but it will be very difficult and unlikely to happen. It is very important that STO succeed in a big way. Some increase in attendance revenues either with improved FCI or ticket sales is the simplest but neither really appears to be in the cards. I just don't see Cleveland prioritizing baseball over football for use of entertainment dollars. Unfortunately, I am afraid the economic future of northern Ohio is pretty much written. Although it won't benefit the Tribe, microstatistical economics will also come to a point where northern Ohio will rebound, kind of like a Phoenix arising from the ashes.
Now, my advice to everyone is to ignore this entire epistle that I was goaded into writing without nasty comments. Let's go back to talking about the Tribe and its prospects and forget all of this ever happened. :)
[editor's note, by Ryan]: Comments are closed. The conversation was veering into areas that weren't consistent with the ground rules. Any further concerns can be addressed to me via e-mail.
[editor's note, by Ryan]: I've re-opened comments after talking with a couple readers. I probably reacted a bit swiftly, and this post is a very interesting one. Carry on.